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BackgroundPredicting the likelihood of success of weight loss interventions using machine learning (ML) models may enhance intervention effectiveness by enabling timely and dynamic modification of intervention components for nonresponders to treatment. However, a lack of understanding and trust in these ML models impacts adoption among weight management experts. Recent advances in the field of explainable artificial intelligence enable the interpretation of ML models, yet it is unknown whether they enhance model understanding, trust, and adoption among weight management experts. ObjectiveThis study aimed to build and evaluate an ML model that can predict 6-month weight loss success (ie, ≥7% weight loss) from 5 engagement and diet-related features collected over the initial 2 weeks of an intervention, to assess whether providing ML-based explanations increases weight management experts’ agreement with ML model predictions, and to inform factors that influence the understanding and trust of ML models to advance explainability in early prediction of weight loss among weight management experts. MethodsWe trained an ML model using the random forest (RF) algorithm and data from a 6-month weight loss intervention (N=419). We leveraged findings from existing explainability metrics to develop Prime Implicant Maintenance of Outcome (PRIMO), an interactive tool to understand predictions made by the RF model. We asked 14 weight management experts to predict hypothetical participants’ weight loss success before and after using PRIMO. We compared PRIMO with 2 other explainability methods, one based on feature ranking and the other based on conditional probability. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to evaluate participants’ agreement with ML predictions and conducted likelihood ratio tests to examine the relationship between explainability methods and outcomes for nested models. We conducted guided interviews and thematic analysis to study the impact of our tool on experts’ understanding and trust in the model. ResultsOur RF model had 81% accuracy in the early prediction of weight loss success. Weight management experts were significantly more likely to agree with the model when using PRIMO (χ2=7.9; P=.02) compared with the other 2 methods with odds ratios of 2.52 (95% CI 0.91-7.69) and 3.95 (95% CI 1.50-11.76). From our study, we inferred that our software not only influenced experts’ understanding and trust but also impacted decision-making. Several themes were identified through interviews: preference for multiple explanation types, need to visualize uncertainty in explanations provided by PRIMO, and need for model performance metrics on similar participant test instances. ConclusionsOur results show the potential for weight management experts to agree with the ML-based early prediction of success in weight loss treatment programs, enabling timely and dynamic modification of intervention components to enhance intervention effectiveness. Our findings provide methods for advancing the understandability and trust of ML models among weight management experts.
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Prediction sets for high-dimensional mixture of experts models
Abstract Large datasets make it possible to build predictive models that can capture heterogenous relationships between the response variable and features. The mixture of high-dimensional linear experts model posits that observations come from a mixture of high-dimensional linear regression models, where the mixture weights are themselves feature-dependent. In this article, we show how to construct valid prediction sets for an ℓ1-penalized mixture of experts model in the high-dimensional setting. We make use of a debiasing procedure to account for the bias induced by the penalization and propose a novel strategy for combining intervals to form a prediction set with coverage guarantees in the mixture setting. Synthetic examples and an application to the prediction of critical temperatures of superconducting materials show our method to have reliable practical performance.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1844481
- PAR ID:
- 10566887
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology
- Volume:
- 87
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1369-7412
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 850-871
- Size(s):
- p. 850-871
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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