An official website of the United States government
Abstract Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing socially relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following features: they focus on temporal (∼1–∼100 years) and spatial (∼1 m–∼10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth surface researchers and decision‐makers, stakeholders, researchers from other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by recommending a roadmap for (a) generating earthcasts, especially those based on modeling; (b) transforming a subset of geomorphic research into earthcasts; and (c) communicating earthcasts beyond the geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on February 5, 2026
A Review of Processes and Models for the Export of Microplastics From Terrestrial to Aquatic Systems
ABSTRACT Microplastics have received increased attention due to their negative impacts on the environment and human health. To minimize these impacts, mitigation strategies that are efficient and cost‐effective for a range of plausible conditions need to be developed. Models can be used to support these mitigation‐related decisions. However, modeling studies related to the export of microplastics from terrestrial to aquatic systems have been limited. Here, we review such modeling studies, the trends over time and geography of focus, and discuss pertinent concepts and the underlying physical, chemical, and biological processes. We categorize the published modeling studies, discuss their limitations, and provide recommendations for future research to fill key knowledge gaps. Future modeling efforts should focus on collecting more comprehensive field data for validation, developing continuous models over event‐based, conducting experimental studies to better understand the fundamental processes, developing hybrid modeling frameworks, adopting sediment transport modeling approaches, incorporating land management practices in the models, integrating surface and sub‐surface processes at the watershed scale, and utilizing advanced data‐driven models like foundation models.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2305189
- PAR ID:
- 10578822
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- WIREs Water
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2049-1948
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
This review sets out to investigate the detrimental impacts of hydrogen gas (H2) on critical boiler components and provide appropriate state-of-the-art mitigation measures and future research directions to advance its use in industrial boiler operations. Specifically, the study focused on hydrogen embrittlement (HE) and high-temperature hydrogen attack (HTHA) and their effects on boiler components. The study provided a fundamental understanding of the evolution of these damage mechanisms in materials and their potential impact on critical boiler components in different operational contexts. Subsequently, the review highlighted general and specific mitigation measures, hydrogen-compatible materials (such as single-crystal PWA 1480E, Inconel 625, and Hastelloy X), and hydrogen barrier coatings (such as TiAlN) for mitigating potential hydrogen-induced damages in critical boiler components. This study also identified strategic material selection approaches and advanced approaches based on computational modeling (such as phase-field modeling) and data-driven machine learning models that could be leveraged to mitigate potential equipment failures due to HE and HTHA under elevated H2 conditions. Finally, future research directions were outlined to facilitate future implementation of mitigation measures, material selection studies, and advanced approaches to promote the extensive and sustainable use of H2 in industrial boiler operations.more » « less
-
Abstract Microplastics are ubiquitous in estuarine, coastal, and deep sea sediments. The impacts of microplastics on sedimentary microbial ecosystems and biogeochemical carbon and nitrogen cycles, however, have not been well reported. To evaluate if microplastics influence the composition and function of sedimentary microbial communities, we conducted a microcosm experiment using salt marsh sediment amended with polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polyurethane foam (PUF) or polylactic acid (PLA) microplastics. We report that the presence of microplastics alters sediment microbial community composition and nitrogen cycling processes. Compared to control sediments without microplastic, PUF- and PLA-amended sediments promote nitrification and denitrification, while PVC amendment inhibits both processes. These results indicate that nitrogen cycling processes in sediments can be significantly affected by different microplastics, which may serve as organic carbon substrates for microbial communities. Considering this evidence and increasing microplastic pollution, the impact of plastics on global ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling merits critical investigation.more » « less
-
Abstract The “Quantitative Assessment of Radiation Belt Modeling” focus group was in place at Geospace Environment Modeling from 2014 to 2018. The overarching goals of this focus group were to bring together the current state‐of‐the‐art models for the acceleration, transport, and loss processes in Earth's radiation belts; develop event‐specific and global inputs of wave, plasma, and magnetic field to drive these models; and combine all these components to achieve a quantitative assessment of radiation belt modeling by validating against contemporary radiation belt measurements. This article briefly reviews the current understanding of radiation belt dynamics and related modeling efforts, summarizes the activities and accomplishments of the focus group, and discusses future directions.more » « less
-
Abstract As the severity of climate change and its associated impacts continue to worsen, schemes for artificially cooling surface temperatures via planetary albedo modification are being studied. The method with the most attention in the literature is stratospheric sulfate aerosol intervention (SAI). Placing reflective aerosols in the stratosphere would have profound impacts on the entire Earth system, with potentially far‐reaching societal impacts. How global crop productivity would be affected by such an intervention strategy is still uncertain, and existing evidence is based on theoretical experiments or isolated modeling studies that use crop models missing key processes associated with SAI that affect plant growth, development, and ultimately yield. Here, we utilize three global gridded process‐based crop models to better understand the potential impacts of one SAI scenario on global maize productivity. Two of the crop models that simulate diffuse radiation fertilization show similar, yet small increases in global maize productivity from increased diffuse radiation. Three crop models show diverse responses to the same climate perturbation from SAI relative to the reference future climate change scenario. We find that future SAI implementation relative to a climate change scenario benefits global maize productivity ranging between 0% and 11% depending on the crop model. These production increases are attributed to reduced surface temperatures and higher fractions of diffuse radiation. The range across model outcomes highlights the need for more systematic multi‐model ensemble assessments using multiple climate model forcings under different SAI scenarios.more » « less
