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Abstract Hundreds of millions of supermassive black hole binaries are expected to contribute to the gravitational-wave signal in the nanohertz frequency band. Their signal is often approximated either as an isotropic Gaussian stochastic background with a power-law spectrum or as an individual source corresponding to the brightest binary. In reality, the signal is best described as a combination of a stochastic background and a few of the brightest binaries modeled individually. We present a method that uses this approach to efficiently create realistic pulsar timing array data sets using synthetic catalogs of binaries based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. We explore three different properties of such realistic backgrounds that could help distinguish them from those formed in the early universe: (i) their characteristic strain spectrum, (ii) their statistical isotropy, and (iii) the variance of their spatial correlations. We also investigate how the presence of confusion noise from a stochastic background affects detection prospects of individual binaries. We calculate signal-to-noise ratios of the brightest binaries in different realizations for a simulated pulsar timing array based on the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set extended to a time span of 15 yr. We find that ∼6% of the realizations produce systems with signal-to-noise ratios larger than 5, suggesting that individual systems might soon be detected (the fraction increases to ∼41% at 20 yr). These can be taken as a pessimistic prediction for the upcoming NANOGrav 15 yr data set, since it does not include the effect of potentially improved timing solutions and newly added pulsars.
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This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2026
The NANOGrav 15 Yr Data Set: Removing Pulsars One by One from the Pulsar Timing Array
Abstract Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15 yr pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese pulsar timing arrays. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB). To explore the internal consistency of this result, we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure the correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic GWB in the NANOGrav 15 yr data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2020265
- PAR ID:
- 10579493
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- Astrophysical Journal
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 978
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 168
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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