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Abstract Predictability of seasonal sea ice advance in the Chukchi Sea has been investigated in the context of ocean heat transport from the Bering Strait; however, the underlying physical processes have yet to be fully clarified. Using the Pan-Arctic Ice–Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reanalysis product (1979–2016), we examined seasonal predictability of sea ice advance in early winter (November–December) and its source using canonical correlation analysis. It was found that 2-month leading (September–October) surface heat flux and ocean heat advection is the major predictor for interannual variability of sea ice advance. Surface heat flux is related to the atmospheric cooling process, which has influenced sea ice area in the southeastern Chukchi Sea particularly in the 1980s and 1990s. Anomalous surface heat flux is induced by strong northeasterly winds related to the east Pacific/North Pacific teleconnection pattern. Ocean heat advection, which is related to fluctuation of volume transport in the Bering Strait, leads to decrease in the sea ice area in the northwestern Chukchi Sea. Diagnostic analysis revealed that interannual variability of the Bering Strait volume transport is governed by arrested topographic waves (ATWs) forced by southeasterly wind stress along the shelf of the East Siberian Sea. The contribution of ocean heat flux to sea ice advance has increased since the 2000s; therefore, it is suggested that the major factor influencing interannual variability of sea ice advance in early winter has shifted from atmospheric cooling to ocean heat advection processes. Significance Statement Predictability of sea ice advance in the marginal Arctic seas in early winter is a crucial issue regarding future projections of the midlatitude winter climate and marine ecosystem. This study examined seasonal predictability of sea ice advance in the Chukchi Sea in early winter using a statistical technique and historical model simulation data. We identified that atmospheric cooling and ocean heat transport are the two main predictors of sea ice advance, and that the impact of the latter has become amplified since the 2000s. Our new finding suggests that the precise information on wind-driven ocean currents and temperatures is crucial for the skillful prediction of interannual variability of sea ice advance under present and future climatic regimes.
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Autumnal Equinox Shift in Arctic Surface Energy Budget: Beaufort‐Chukchi Seas Case Study
Abstract This study examines the annual cycle of the Surface Energy Budget (SEB) in the Beaufort‐Chukchi seas, focusing on the autumn transition. Shipboard measurements from NASA's Salinity and Stratification at the Sea Ice Edge (SASSIE) experiment (8 September–2 October 2022) and satellite flux analysis for the entire 2022 were utilized to provide a comprehensive perspective of the SEB's seasonal dynamics. An important finding is the alignment of SEB’s autumnal transition with the September 22 equinox, marking the onset of prolonged Arctic darkness. This transition involved a shift from the summertime radiative heating to cooling conditions, characterized by outgoing longwave radiation surpassing incoming solar radiation and a notable increase in synoptic turbulent latent and sensible heat flux variability. The increased turbulent heat fluxes after the equinox were associated with increased occurrences of short‐duration cold air outbreaks. These outbreaks seem to originate from cold mesoscale surface winds transitioning from cooling landmasses or ice caps to the warmer seas, driven by differential cooling rates between land/ice and ocean as solar irradiance declined. Turbulent heat losses, outpacing longwave emission by more than fivefold, accelerated ocean surface cooling in the subsequent 2 months, leading to the complete freeze‐up of the Beaufort‐Chukchi seas by late November. These findings underscore the substantial influence of astronomical seasons on the SEB, emphasizing their crucial role in Arctic climate dynamics.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2150401
- PAR ID:
- 10583367
- Publisher / Repository:
- AGU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Volume:
- 129
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2169-9275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020788
