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Abstract An ensemble postprocessing method is developed for the probabilistic prediction of severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and wind gusts) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines conditional generative adversarial networks (CGANs), a type of deep generative model, with a convolutional neural network (CNN) to postprocess convection-allowing model (CAM) forecasts. The CGANs are designed to create synthetic ensemble members from deterministic CAM forecasts, and their outputs are processed by the CNN to estimate the probability of severe weather. The method is tested using High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 1–24-h forecasts as inputs and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather reports as targets. The method produced skillful predictions with up to 20% Brier skill score (BSS) increases compared to other neural-network-based reference methods using a testing dataset of HRRR forecasts in 2021. For the evaluation of uncertainty quantification, the method is overconfident but produces meaningful ensemble spreads that can distinguish good and bad forecasts. The quality of CGAN outputs is also evaluated. Results show that the CGAN outputs behave similarly to a numerical ensemble; they preserved the intervariable correlations and the contribution of influential predictors as in the original HRRR forecasts. This work provides a novel approach to postprocess CAM output using neural networks that can be applied to severe weather prediction. Significance StatementWe use a new machine learning (ML) technique to generate probabilistic forecasts of convective weather hazards, such as tornadoes and hailstorms, with the output from high-resolution numerical weather model forecasts. The new ML system generates an ensemble of synthetic forecast fields from a single forecast, which are then used to train ML models for convective hazard prediction. Using this ML-generated ensemble for training leads to improvements of 10%–20% in severe weather forecast skills compared to using other ML algorithms that use only output from the single forecast. This work is unique in that it explores the use of ML methods for producing synthetic forecasts of convective storm events and using these to train ML systems for high-impact convective weather prediction.
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Inferring temperature fields from concentration fields in channel flows using conditional generative adversarial networks
An accurate estimation of three-dimensional (3D) temperature fields in channel flows is challenging but critical for many important applications such as heat exchangers, radiation energy collectors, and enhanced geothermal systems. In this paper, we demonstrate the possibility of inferring temperature fields from concentration fields for laminar convection flows in a 3D channel using a machine learning (ML) approach. The study involves generation of data using 3D numerical simulations, application of deep learning methodology using conditional generative adversarial networks (cGANs), and analysis of how dataset selection affects model performance. The model is also tested for applicability in different convection scenarios. Results show that cGANs can successfully infer temperature fields from concentration fields, and the reconstruction accuracy is sensitive to the training dataset selected. In this study, we demonstrate how ML can be used to overcome the limitations of traditional heat and mass analogy functions widely used in heat transfer research.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2053370
- PAR ID:
- 10593613
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Institute of Physics
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Applied Physics
- Volume:
- 135
- Issue:
- 21
- ISSN:
- 0021-8979
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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