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Summary Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate‐sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges.Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel ‘phenology‐informed’ SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology‐informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting.When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology‐informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes.Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait‐based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.
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This content will become publicly available on March 24, 2026
Responses to climate change – insights and limitations from herbaceous plant model systems
Herbaceous plant species have been the focus of extensive, long-term research into climate change responses, but there has been little effort to synthesize results and predicted outlooks from different model species. We summarize research on climate change responses for eight intensively-studied herbaceous plant species. We establish generalities across species, examine limitations, interrogate biases, and propose a path forward. All six forb species exhibit reduced fitness, maladaptation, and/or population declines in at least part of the range. Plasticity alone is likely not sufficient to allow adjustment to shifting climates. Most model species also have spatially-restricted dispersal that may limit genetic and evolutionary rescue. These results are surprising, given that these species are widespread, span large elevation ranges, and generally have substantial levels of genetic and phenotypic variation. The focal species have diverse life histories, reproductive strategies, and habitats, but most are native to North America. Thus, these species may poorly represent rare species, habitat specialists, or species endemic to other parts of the world. We encourage researchers to design demographic and field experiments that evaluate plant traits and fitness in contemporary and potential future conditions across the full life cycle, and that consider the effects of climate change on biotic interactions.
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- PAR ID:
- 10594130
- Publisher / Repository:
- EcoEvoRxiv
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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