More Like this

1. Operational prediction of solar flares using a transformer-based framework

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-40884-1  

   Abduallah, Yasser; Wang, Jason T. L.; Wang, Haimin; Xu, Yan (August 2023, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Solar flares are explosions on the Sun. They happen when energy stored in magnetic fields around solar active regions (ARs) is suddenly released. Solar flares and accompanied coronal mass ejections are sources of space weather, which negatively affects a variety of technologies at or near Earth, ranging from blocking high-frequency radio waves used for radio communication to degrading power grid operations. Monitoring and providing early and accurate prediction of solar flares is therefore crucial for preparedness and disaster risk management. In this article, we present a transformer-based framework, named SolarFlareNet, for predicting whether an AR would produce a$$\gamma$$ $\gamma$-class flare within the next 24 to 72 h. We consider three$$\gamma$$ $\gamma$classes, namely the$$\ge$$ $\ge$M5.0 class, the$$\ge$$ $\ge$M class and the$$\ge$$ $\ge$C class, and build three transformers separately, each corresponding to a$$\gamma$$ $\gamma$class. Each transformer is used to make predictions of its corresponding$$\gamma$$ $\gamma$-class flares. The crux of our approach is to model data samples in an AR as time series and to use transformers to capture the temporal dynamics of the data samples. Each data sample consists of magnetic parameters taken from Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey flare events that occurred from May 2010 to December 2022 using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), and build a database of flares with identified ARs in the NCEI flare catalogs. This flare database is used to construct labels of the data samples suitable for machine learning. We further extend the deterministic approach to a calibration-based probabilistic forecasting method. The SolarFlareNet system is fully operational and is capable of making near real-time predictions of solar flares on the Web. 

   more » « less
2. Suppression of Collisionless Magnetic Reconnection in the High Ion β, Strong Guide Field Limit

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad9274  

   Giai, Carlos_A; Haggerty, Colby_C; Shay, Michael_A; Cassak, Paul_A; Davis, Zachary_K (December 2024, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract In magnetic reconnection, the ion bulk outflow speed and ion heating have been shown to be set by the available reconnecting magnetic energy, i.e., the energy stored in the reconnecting magnetic field (B_r). However, recent simulations, observations, and theoretical works have shown that the released magnetic energy is inhibited by upstream ion plasma betaβ_i—the relative ion thermal pressure normalized to magnetic pressure based on the reconnecting field—for antiparallel magnetic field configurations. Using kinetic theory and hybrid particle-in-cell simulations, we investigate the effects ofβ_ion guide field reconnection. While previous works have suggested that guide field reconnection is uninfluenced byβ_i, we demonstrate that the reconnection process is modified and the outflow is reduced for sufficiently large ${\beta }_i>(B_r^2+B_g^2)/B_r^2$. We develop a theoretical framework that shows that this reduction is consistent with an enhanced exhaust pressure gradient, which reduces the outflow speed as $v_{\mathrm{out}}\propto 1/\sqrt{{\beta }_i}$. These results apply to systems in which guide field reconnection is embedded in hot plasmas, such as reconnection at the boundary of eddies in fully developed turbulence like the solar wind or the magnetosheath as well as downstream of shocks such as the heliosheath or the mergers of galaxy clusters. 

   more » « less
3. Scaling of Ion Bulk Heating in Magnetic Reconnection Outflows for the High-Alfvén-speed and Low-β Regime in Earth’s Magnetotail

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad6151  

   Øieroset, M; Phan, T D; Drake, J F; Starkey, M; Fuselier, S A; Cohen, I J; Haggerty, C C; Shay, M A; Oka, M; Gershman, D J; et al (August 2024, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract We survey 20 reconnection outflow events observed by Magnetospheric MultiScale in the low-βand high-Alfvén-speed regime of the Earth’s magnetotail to investigate the scaling of ion bulk heating produced by reconnection. The range of inflow Alfvén speeds (800–4000 km s⁻¹) and inflow ionβ(0.002–1) covered by this study is in a plasma regime that could be applicable to the solar corona and flare environments. We find that the observed ion heating increases with increasing inflow (upstream) Alfvén speed,V_A, based on the reconnecting magnetic field and the upstream plasma density. However, ion heating does not increase linearly as a function of available magnetic energy per particle, ${{\mathit{m}}_{\mathrm{i}}{\mathit{V}}_{\mathrm{A}}}^2$. Instead, the heating increases progressively less as ${{\mathit{m}}_{\mathrm{i}}{\mathit{V}}_{\mathrm{A}}}^2$rises. This is in contrast to a previous study using the same data set, which found that electron heating in this high-Alfvén-speed and low-βregime scales linearly with ${{\mathit{m}}_{\mathrm{i}}{\mathit{V}}_{\mathrm{A}}}^2$, with a scaling factor nearly identical to that found for the low-V_Aand high-βmagnetopause. Consequently, the ion-to-electron heating ratio in reconnection exhausts decreases with increasing upstreamV_A, suggesting that the energy partition between ions and electrons in reconnection exhausts could be a function of the available magnetic energy per particle. Finally, we find that the observed difference in ion and electron heating scaling may be consistent with the predicted effects of a trapping potential in the exhaust, which enhances electron heating, but reduces ion heating. 

   more » « less
4. The Scaling of Vortical Electron Acceleration in Thin-current Magnetic Reconnection and Its Implications in Solar Flares

   https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad09e6  

   Crawford, C.; Che, H.; Benz, A. O. (January 2024, The Astrophysical Journal)

   Abstract To investigate how magnetic reconnection (MR) accelerates electrons to a power-law energy spectrum in solar flares, we explore the scaling of a kinetic model proposed by Che & Zank (CZ) and compare it to observations. Focusing on thin current sheet MR particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations, we analyze the impact of domain size on the evolution of the electron Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (EKHI). We find that the duration of the growth stage of the EKHI ( $t_G\sim {\mathrm{\Omega }}_e^{-1}$) is short and remains nearly unchanged because the electron gyrofrequency Ω_eis independent of domain size. The quasi-steady stage of the EKHI (t_MR) dominates the electron acceleration process and scales linearly with the size of the simulations asL/v_A0, wherev_A0is the Alfvén speed. We use the analytical results obtained by CZ to calculate the continuous temporal evolution of the electron energy spectra from PIC simulations and linearly scale them to solar flare observational scales. For the first time, an electron acceleration model predicts the sharp two-stage transition observed in typical soft–hard–harder electron energy spectra, implying that the electron acceleration model must be efficient with an acceleration timescale that is a small fraction of the duration of solar flares. Our results suggest that we can use PIC MR simulations to investigate the observational electron energy spectral evolution of solar flares if the ratiot_MR/t_Gis sufficiently small, i.e., ≲10%. 

   more » « less
5. $1/f$ Noise in the Heliosphere: A Target for PUNCH Science

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-024-02401-z  

   Wang, Jiaming; Matthaeus, William H; Chhiber, Rohit; Roy, Sohom; Pradata, Rayta A; Pecora, Francesco; Yang, Yan (December 2024, Solar Physics)

   Abstract We present a broad review of$$1/f$$ $1/f$noise observations in the heliosphere, and discuss and complement the theoretical background of generic$$1/f$$ $1/f$models as relevant to NASA’s Polarimeter to UNify the Corona and Heliosphere (PUNCH) mission. First observed in the voltage fluctuations of vacuum tubes, the scale-invariant$$1/f$$ $1/f$spectrum has since been identified across a wide array of natural and artificial systems, including heart rate fluctuations and loudness patterns in musical compositions. In the solar wind the interplanetary magnetic field trace spectrum exhibits$$1/f$$ $1/f$scaling within the frequency range from around$$\unit[2 \times 10^{-6}]{Hz}$$to around$$\unit[10^{-3}]{{Hz}}$$at 1 au. One compelling mechanism for the generation of$$1/f$$ $1/f$noise is the superposition principle, where a composite$$1/f$$ $1/f$spectrum arises from the superposition of a collection of individual power-law spectra characterized by a scale-invariant distribution of correlation times. In the context of the solar wind, such a superposition could originate from scale-invariant reconnection processes in the corona. Further observations have detected$$1/f$$ $1/f$signatures in the photosphere and corona at frequency ranges compatible with those observed at 1 au, suggesting an even lower altitude origin of$$1/f$$ $1/f$spectrum in the solar dynamo itself. This hypothesis is bolstered by dynamo experiments and simulations that indicate inverse cascade activities, which can be linked to successive flux tube reconnections beneath the corona, and are known to generate$$1/f$$ $1/f$noise possibly through nonlocal interactions at the largest scales. Conversely, models positing in situ generation of$$1/f$$ $1/f$signals face causality issues in explaining the low-frequency portion of the$$1/f$$ $1/f$spectrum. Understanding$$1/f$$ $1/f$noise in the solar wind may inform central problems in heliospheric physics, such as the solar dynamo, coronal heating, the origin of the solar wind, and the nature of interplanetary turbulence. 

   more » « less