Flood damage has severe and long-term repercussions for households and communities, and continued housing development in floodplains escalates damages over time. Policies and interventions to reduce damage depend on assumptions about housing stock and residents, but assessments of flood exposure to date largely focus on community-scale characteristics at a single point in time, masking potential within-community differences and their evolution through time. We measure residential development in the floodplain nationwide over time to characterize the type and value of U.S. floodplain housing stock and to assess how new development contributes to flood exposure. Over 4M U.S. residences built from 1700 to 2019 (4.8% of all residences built during that time) are located within current regulatory floodplains. These residences are concentrated at the affordable and expensive extremes of the housing value spectrum, reflecting deep differences in the social vulnerability of floodplain residents. Floodplain housing stock often differs substantially from the local market, with coastal floodplains containing relatively expensive housing and inland floodplains containing relatively affordable housing. New housing development has not occurred equally across these contexts. In the past two decades, more floodplain development has occurred in communities with relatively expensive floodplain housing, and mobile home construction in floodplains has slowed. The bifurcated patterns in floodplain housing, across values and geographies, demonstrate the importance of considering the specific population at risk and how it may differ from the broader community when tailoring flood risk management approaches. 
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                            A Nationwide Analysis of Community‐Level Floodplain Development Outcomes and Key Influences
                        
                    
    
            Development patterns and climate change are contributing to increasing flood risk across the United States. Limiting development in floodplains mitigates risk by reducing the assets and population exposed to flooding. Here, we develop two indexes measuring floodplain development for 18,548 communities across the continental United States. We combine land use, impervious surface, and housing data with regulatory flood maps to determine what proportion of new development has taken place in the floodplain. Nationwide from 2001 to 2019, 2.1 million acres of floodplain land were developed, and 844,000 residential properties were built in the floodplain. However, contrary to conventional perceptions of rampant floodplain development, just 26% of communities nationwide have developed in floodplains more than would be expected given the hazard they face. The indexes and the analyses they enable can help guide targeted interventions to improve flood risk management, to explore underlying drivers of flood exposure, and to inform how local‐to‐federal policy choices can be leveraged to limit hazardous development. 
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                            - PAR ID:
- 10597673
- Publisher / Repository:
- AGU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 2328-4277
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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