This content will become publicly available on December 15, 2025
Title: Kenneth Arrow's Last Theorem
In Kenneth Arrow's last week of life at age 95, he reported that I began my research career with an impossibility theorem. If I had time now, my last theorem would be an impossibility theorem about social choice for environmental policy. This paper completes the formalization, proof, and discussion of the theorem that Arrow then described. more »« less
Paul_Milgrom
(, Journal of mechanism and institution design)
NA
(Ed.)
In Kenneth Arrow’s last week of life at age 95, he reported that “I began my research career with an impossibility theorem. If I had time now, my last theorem would be an impossibility theorem about social choice for environmental policy.” This paper completes the formalization, proof, and discussion of the theorem that Arrow then described.
My most heartfelt thanks to ACL for this tremendous honor. I’m completely thrilled. I cannot tell you how surprised I was when I got Iryna’s email. It is amazing that my first ACL conference since 2019 in Florence includes this award. What a wonderful way to be back with all of my friends and family here at ACL. I’m going to tell you about my big fat 50-year journey. What have I been doing for the last 50 years? Well, finding meaning, quite literally in words. Or in other words, exploring how computational lexical semantics can support natural language understanding. This is going to be quick. Hold onto your hats, here we go.
Bell, Andrew; Bynum, Lucius; Drushchak, Nazarii; Zakharchenko, Tetiana; Rosenblatt, Lucas; Stoyanovich, Julia
(, FAccT '23: Proceedings of the 2023 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency)
The “impossibility theorem” — which is considered foundational in algorithmic fairness literature — asserts that there must be trade-offs between common notions of fairness and performance when fitting statistical models, except in two special cases: when the prevalence of the outcome being predicted is equal across groups, or when a perfectly accurate predictor is used. However, theory does not always translate to practice. In this work, we challenge the implications of the impossibility theorem in practical settings. First, we show analytically that, by slightly relaxing the impossibility theorem (to accommodate a practitioner’s perspective of fairness), it becomes possible to identify abundant sets of models that satisfy seemingly incompatible fairness constraints. Second, we demonstrate the existence of these models through extensive experiments on five real-world datasets. We conclude by offering tools and guidance for practitioners to understand when — and to what degree — fairness along multiple criteria can be achieved. This work has an important implication for the community: achieving fairness along multiple metrics for multiple groups (and their intersections) is much more possible than was previously believed.
Moon, J
(, Resilience Engineering Association (REA) Symposium)
My dissertation research to date has focused on understanding how incident management teams (IMTs), hastily formed multidisciplinary multiteam systems, cognitively function together as adaptive, joint cognitive systems-of-systems embedded in complex sociotechnical systems. Catastrophic disasters such as Hurricane Harvey highlight the importance of collective efforts for adaptive incident management. Team cognition has emerged as a coordinating mechanism in safety-critical disciplines; however, little is known about cognition in IMTs. Through a scoping review of existing definitions, I proposed an expanded definition that deliberately takes into account IMT’s unique contextual characteristics, based on three premises: cognition in IMTs (1) manifests as interactions among humans, teams, and technologies at multiple levels of multiteam systems, (2) aims to achieve the system-level cognitive goals of perceiving (P), diagnosing, (D), and adapting (A) to information, and (3) serves as an open communication platform for adaptive coordination.Then, I operationalized our proposed definition in a simulated environment as an initial attempt to model IMTs’ system-level cognition. Based on several observations of IMTs’ naturalistic interactive behaviors under different types of disaster scenarios, I proposed a model that can capture how IMTs as joint cognitive systems (or systems-of-systems) perceive (P), diagnose, (D), and adapt (A) to information, i.e., perceive, diagnose, adapt (P, D, A) model. With an emphasis on system-level cognitive goals that applies to multiple units of analysis (e.g., individuals, dyads, teams, and multiteam systems), I could gain an understanding of system-level cognitive adaptation in incident management. Using the P, D, A model as a base platform, I expect to discuss resilience as cognitive adaptation processes along with its implications on human information processing and joint cognitive systems theories.I became a Ph.D. candidate after successfully proposing my dissertation research in last June. After completing data collection and processing, I am currently working on data analysis and manuscript preparation. As a part of NSF-funded project (NSF EArly-concept Grant for Exploratory Research, #1724676), I believe my dissertation work has a potential to practically impact scenario-based training practices of incident management, and thereby lead to a more rapid and better coordinated decision-making in saving lives and infrastructures.
Schofield, Oscar
(, ICES Journal of Marine Science)
Browman, Howard
(Ed.)
Abstract Over the last 30 years, ocean sciences have been undergoing a technological revolution. Changes include the transition of autonomous platforms from being interesting engineering projects to being critical tools for scientists studying a range of processes at sea. My career has benefitted immensely from these technical innovations, allowing me to be at sea (virtually) 365 days a year and operate ocean networks globally. While these technical innovations have opened many research doors, many aspects of oceanography are unchanged. In my experience, working/talking/scheming with scientists is most effective face-to-face. Despite the growing capabilities of robotic platforms, we will still need to go to sea on ships to conduct critical experiments. As the responsibilities of scientists expand with mandated outreach efforts, I strongly urge young scientists to leverage the expertise of Broader Impact professionals, who are increasingly available to our community, in order to maximize the effectiveness and efficiency of our outreach efforts. Given the increasing observations of change occurring in the ocean, our work is ever-more important while still being fun. I am blessed to have had a career as an oceanographer exploring this planet.
Milgrom, Paul. Kenneth Arrow's Last Theorem. Retrieved from https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10600037. Journal of Mechanism and Institution Design 9.1 Web. doi:10.22574/jmid.2024.12.002.
Milgrom, Paul. Kenneth Arrow's Last Theorem. Journal of Mechanism and Institution Design, 9 (1). Retrieved from https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10600037. https://doi.org/10.22574/jmid.2024.12.002
@article{osti_10600037,
place = {Country unknown/Code not available},
title = {Kenneth Arrow's Last Theorem},
url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10600037},
DOI = {10.22574/jmid.2024.12.002},
abstractNote = {In Kenneth Arrow's last week of life at age 95, he reported that I began my research career with an impossibility theorem. If I had time now, my last theorem would be an impossibility theorem about social choice for environmental policy. This paper completes the formalization, proof, and discussion of the theorem that Arrow then described.},
journal = {Journal of Mechanism and Institution Design},
volume = {9},
number = {1},
publisher = {Society for the Promotion of Mechanism and Institution Design},
author = {Milgrom, Paul},
}
Warning: Leaving National Science Foundation Website
You are now leaving the National Science Foundation website to go to a non-government website.
Website:
NSF takes no responsibility for and exercises no control over the views expressed or the accuracy of
the information contained on this site. Also be aware that NSF's privacy policy does not apply to this site.