Analyzing a list of all Small Business Administration (SBA) loans in 1991 to 2009 linked with annual information on all U.S. employers from 1976 to 2012, we apply detailed matching and regression methods to estimate the variation in SBA loan effects on job creation and firm survival across firm age and size groups. The number of jobs created per million dollars of loans generally increases with size and decreases in age. The results imply that fast-growing firms (“gazelles”) experience the greatest financial constraints to growth, while the growth of small, mature firms is least financially constrained. The estimated association between survival and loan amount is larger for younger and smaller firms facing the “valley of death”.
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This content will become publicly available on May 29, 2026
An Empirical Analysis of External and Internal Factors Affecting Manufacturing Firm Failure and Resilience
ABSTRACT We develop machine learning models that incorporate both external (deterministic) and internal (voluntaristic) factors affecting firm failure and survival. Using structured and unstructured data, we empirically investigate the external and internal factors that affect the US manufacturing firms’ business failure. We also examine how the interactions between external shocks and firm responses impact business failure. Our findings indicate that while external factors can significantly impact the likelihood that firms fail, specific management responses to these challenges can effectively mitigate the negative effects and contribute to firm survival.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2244574
- PAR ID:
- 10615250
- Publisher / Repository:
- Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance
- ISSN:
- 1044-8136
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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