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   Li, Yuanlong; Han, Weiqing; Zhang, Lei (October 2017, Geophysical Research Letters)
2. Indian Ocean warming as a driver of the North Atlantic warming hole

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18522-5  

   Hu, Shineng; Fedorov, Alexey V. (September 2020, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Over the past century, the subpolar North Atlantic experienced slight cooling or suppressed warming, relative to the background positive temperature trends, often dubbed the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). The causes of the NAWH remain under debate. Here we conduct coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations to demonstrate that enhanced Indian Ocean warming, another salient feature of global warming, could increase local rainfall and through teleconnections strengthen surface westerly winds south of Greenland, cooling the subpolar North Atlantic. In decades to follow however, this cooling effect would gradually vanish as the Indian Ocean warming acts to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We argue that the historical NAWH can potentially be explained by such atmospheric mechanisms reliant on surface wind changes, while oceanic mechanisms related to AMOC changes become more important on longer timescales. Thus, explaining the North Atlantic temperature trends and particularly the NAWH requires considering both atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms. 

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   Hu, Zeng‐Zhen; McPhaden, Michael J.; Kumar, Arun; Yu, Jin‐Yi; Johnson, Nathaniel C. (April 2020, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract In light of a warming climate, the complexity of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) makes its prediction a challenge. In addition to various flavors of ENSO, oceanic warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is not always accompanied by corresponding atmospheric anomalies; that is, the atmosphere and ocean remain uncoupled. Such uncoupled warm events as happened in 1979, 2004, 2014, and 2018 are rare and represent an unusual form of ENSO diversity. A weaker zonal sea surface temperature anomaly gradient across the tropical Pacific compared to a conventional El Niño may partially account for the decoupling. Also, the uncoupled warm events typically start late in the calendar year, which raises the possible influence of seasonality in background conditions for the lack of coupling. Without coupling, the impact of the warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific on extratropical climate is different from that of its coupled counterpart. 

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