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Crowd financing is a burgeoning phenomenon that promises to improve access to capital by enabling borrowers with limited financial opportunities to receive small contributions from individual lenders towards unsecured loan requests. Faced with information asymmetry about borrowers' credibility, individual lenders bear the entire loss in case of loan default. Predicting loan payment is therefore crucial for lenders and for the sustainability of these platforms. To this end, we examine whether the ''wisdom'' of the lending crowd can provide reliable decision support with respect to projects' long-term success. Using data from Prosper.com, we investigate the association between the dynamics of lending behaviour and successful loan payment through interpretable classification models. We find evidence for collective intelligence signals in lending behaviour and observe variability in crowd wisdom across loan categories. We find that the wisdom of the lending crowd is most prominent in the auto loan category, but it is statistically significant for all other categories except student debt. Our study contributes new insights on how signals deduced from lending behaviour can improve the efficiency of crowd financing thereby contributing to economic growth and societal development.
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Thinking Fast and Slow: Data-Driven Adaptive DeFi Borrow-Lending Protocol
Decentralized finance (DeFi) borrowing and lending platforms are crucial to the decentralized economy, involving two main participants: lenders who provide assets for interest and borrowers who offer collateral exceeding their debt and pay interest. Collateral volatility necessitates over-collateralization to protect lenders and ensure competitive returns. Traditional DeFi platforms use a fixed interest rate curve based on the utilization rate (the fraction of available assets borrowed) and determine over-collateralization offline through simulations to manage risk. This method doesn't adapt well to dynamic market changes, such as price fluctuations and evolving user needs, often resulting in losses for lenders or borrowers. In this paper, we introduce an adaptive, data-driven protocol for DeFi borrowing and lending. Our approach includes a high-frequency controller that dynamically adjusts interest rates to maintain market stability and competitiveness with external markets. Unlike traditional protocols, which rely on user reactions and often adjust slowly, our controller uses a learning-based algorithm to quickly find optimal interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost for users during periods of misalignment with external rates. Additionally, we use a low-frequency planner that analyzes user behavior to set an optimal over-collateralization ratio, balancing risk reduction with profit maximization over the long term. This dual approach is essential for adaptive markets: the short-term component maintains market stability, preventing exploitation, while the long-term planner optimizes market parameters to enhance profitability and reduce risks. We provide theoretical guarantees on the convergence rates and adversarial robustness of the short-term component and the long-term effectiveness of our protocol. Empirical validation confirms our protocol’s theoretical benefits.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2325477
- PAR ID:
- 10618771
- Editor(s):
- Böhme, Rainer; Kiffer, Lucianna
- Publisher / Repository:
- Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik
- Date Published:
- Volume:
- 316
- ISSN:
- 1868-8969
- ISBN:
- 978-3-95977-345-4
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 27:1-27:23
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Defi borrow-lending adaptive market design decentralized finance Theory of computation → Market equilibria
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: 23 pages; 1394303 bytes Other: application/pdf
- Size(s):
- 23 pages 1394303 bytes
- Right(s):
- Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license; info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.4230/LIPIcs.AFT.2024.27
