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Abstract The concentration of chlorophyll‐a (CHL) is an important proxy for autotrophic biomass and primary production in the ocean. Quantifying trends and variability in CHL are essential to understanding how marine ecosystems are affected by climate change. Previous analyses have focused on assessing trends in CHL mean, but little is known about observed changes in CHL extremes and variance. Here we apply a quantile regression model to detect trends in CHL distribution over the period of 1997–2022 for several quantiles. We find that the magnitude of trends in upper quantiles of global CHL (>90th) are larger than those in lower quantiles (≤50th) and in the mean, suggesting a growing asymmetry in CHL distribution. On a regional scale, trends in different quantiles are statistically significant at high latitude, equatorial, and oligotrophic regions. Assessing changes in CHL distribution has potential to yield a more comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts on CHL.
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This content will become publicly available on June 19, 2026
Greener green and bluer blue: Ocean poleward greening over the past two decades
Although the global greening associated with climate change is well documented on land, similar trends in the ocean have not been thoroughly identified. Using satellite observations of ocean chlorophyll a (Chl) concentration, we show that the surface ocean experienced a poleward greening from 2003 to 2022. Contemporaneously, the subtropical regions of the Northern Hemisphere experienced a decrease in Chl. As such, the latitudinal disparity in Chl, as documented by an inequality index, has been increasing over the past two decades, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Rising water temperatures may primarily influence the Chl trends. The increasing Chl inequality—marked by “greener green and bluer blue” waters—has the potential to cascade to higher trophic levels, with implications for the fisheries and economies of coastal nations.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2123198
- PAR ID:
- 10628210
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science
- ISSN:
- 1095-9203
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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