An official website of the United States government
Abstract Predicting the fate of tropical forests under a changing climate requires understanding species responses to climatic variability and extremes. Seedlings may be particularly vulnerable to climatic stress given low stored resources and undeveloped roots; they also portend the potential effects of climate change on future forest composition. Here we use data for ca. 50,000 tropical seedlings representing 25 woody species to assess (i) the effects of interannual variation in rainfall and solar radiation between 2007 and 2016 on seedling survival over 9 years in a subtropical forest; and (ii) how spatial heterogeneity in three environmental factors—soil moisture, understory light, and conspecific neighborhood density—modulate these responses. Community‐wide seedling survival was not sensitive to interannual rainfall variability but interspecific variation in these responses was large, overwhelming the average community response. In contrast, community‐wide responses to solar radiation were predominantly positive. Spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture and conspecific density were the predominant and most consistent drivers of seedling survival, with the majority of species exhibiting greater survival at low conspecific densities and positive or nonlinear responses to soil moisture. This environmental heterogeneity modulated impacts of rainfall and solar radiation. Negative conspecific effects were amplified during rainy years and at dry sites, whereas the positive effects of radiation on survival were more pronounced for seedlings existing at high understory light levels. These results demonstrate that environmental heterogeneity is not only the main driver of seedling survival in this forest but also plays a central role in buffering or exacerbating impacts of climate fluctuations on forest regeneration. Since seedlings represent a key bottleneck in the demographic cycle of trees, efforts to predict the long‐term effects of a changing climate on tropical forests must take into account this environmental heterogeneity and how its effects on regeneration dynamics play out in long‐term stand dynamics.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on January 31, 2026
Climate change aggravates bird mortality in pristine tropical forests
Stable understory microclimates within undisturbed rainforests are often considered refugia against climate change. However, this assumption contrasts with emerging evidence of Neotropical bird population declines in intact rainforests. We assessed the vulnerability of resident rainforest birds to climatic variability, focusing on dry season severity characterized by hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall. Analyzing 4264 individual bird captures over 27 years, we found that harsher Amazonian dry seasons significantly reduced apparent survival for 24 of 29 species, with longer-lived species being more strongly affected. Our model predicted that a 1°C increase in average dry season temperature would reduce the mean apparent survival of the understory bird community by 63%. These findings directly link climate change to declining bird survival in the Amazon, challenging the notion that pristine rainforests can fully protect their biodiversity under increasingly severe climate conditions.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2311046
- PAR ID:
- 10630708
- Publisher / Repository:
- Science Advances
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2375-2548
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long‐term demography dataset for the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low‐elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid‐elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid‐elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low‐elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low‐elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate‐mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black‐throated blue warblers near the warm‐edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.more » « less
-
Abstract Given that terrestrial ecosystems globally are facing the loss of biodiversity from land use conversion, invasive species, and climate change, effective management requires a better understanding of the drivers and correlates of biodiversity. Increasingly, biodiversity is co‐managed with aboveground carbon storage because high biodiversity in animal species is observed to correlate with high aboveground carbon storage. Most previous investigations into the relationship of biodiversity and carbon co‐management do not focus on the biodiversity of the species rich plant kingdom, which may have tradeoffs with carbon storage. To examine the relationships of plant species richness with aboveground tree biomass carbon storage, we used a series of generalized linear models with understory plant species richness and diversity data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis dataset and high‐resolution modeled carbon maps for the Tongass National Forest. Functional trait data from the TRY database was used to understand the potential mechanisms that drive the response of understory plants. Understory species richness and community weighted mean leaf dry matter content decreased along an increasing gradient of tree biomass carbon storage, but understory diversity, community weighted mean specific leaf area, and plant height at maturity did not. Leaf dry matter content had little variance at the community level. The decline of understory plant species richness but not diversity to increases in aboveground biomass carbon storage suggests that rare species are excluded in aboveground biomass carbon dense areas. These decreases in understory species richness reflect a tradeoff between the understory plant community and aboveground carbon storage. The mechanisms that are associated with observed plant communities along a gradient of biomass carbon storage in this forest suggest that slower‐growing plant strategies are less effective in the presence of high biomass carbon dense trees in the overstory.more » « less
-
ABSTRACT An increasing body of evidence has displayed upslope shifts in the high-diversity avian communities of tropical mountains. Such shifts have largely been attributed to warming climates, although their actual mechanisms remain poorly understood. One likely possibility is that changes in species-specific demographic rates underlie elevational range shifts. Fine-scale population monitoring and capture–mark–recapture (CMR) analysis could shed light on these mechanisms, but, until recently, analytical constraints have limited our ability to model multiple demographic rates across bird communities while accounting for transient individuals. Here, we used Bayesian hierarchical multi-species CMR models to estimate the apparent survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rates of 17 bird species along an elevational gradient in the cloud forests of Honduras. For 6 species, we also modeled demographic rates across elevation and time. Although demographic rates varied among species, population growth rates tended to be higher in lower elevation species. Moreover, some species showed higher population growth rates at higher elevations, and elevational differences in growth rates were positively associated with previous estimates of upslope shifts at the study site. We also found that demographic rates showed contrasting trends across the duration of the study, with recruitment decreasing and apparent survival increasing, and stronger effects at lower elevations. Collectively, we provide the methodological tools to encourage more multi-species demographic analyses in other systems, while highlighting the potential for the demographic impacts of global change. We provide a Spanish translation in the Supplementary Materials.more » « less
-
Abstract In aquatic systems, refuge habitats increase resistance to drying events and maintain populations in disturbed environments. However, reduced water availability and altered flow regimes threaten the function of these habitats. We conducted a capture–mark–recapture study, integrating angler citizen science. Our objectives were to quantify variation in survival of Florida Largemouth BassMicropterus salmoides floridanusin a coastal refuge habitat across seasonal hydrological periods and over 4 years of varying drying severity and to determine the contribution of angler sampling to improving capture probabilities. Apparent survival of Florida Largemouth Bass in the coastal Everglades was highest in wet and drying periods and lowest in dry and reflooding periods. Interannual survival was closely tied to the length of upstream marsh drying, with the lowest observed survival (0.21) during a drought year. The inclusion of angler sampling improved recapture probabilities, suggesting that angler data can supplement standardized electrofishing sampling. Findings show that during short drying events Florida Largemouth Bass survival can be relatively high, with implications for Everglades restoration. Understanding the ability of refuge habitats to buffer populations from drying disturbance is a key component for conservation and restoration, particularly under climate change scenarios.more » « less
