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Abstract Deforestation due to land-use and land-cover (LULC) change has been linked to increased emerging zoonotic disease risk despite limited local level data on such outbreaks. This Forum reevaluates this risk inference using newly released data on zoonotic disease outbreaks, accounting for Structural One Health features, including socioeconomic development and armed conflict covariates. Event and time series data on disease and forest coverage anomalies at the 0.5-degree level for every month between January 2003 and December 2018 are used to estimate the relationship between LULC and zoonosis using Poisson generalized additive and generalized linear models. Once adjusted for Structural One Health features, outbreak risk is 7%–200% higher in areas that experienced forest cover reversion. These results highlight the importance of accounting for Structural One Health factors when analyzing complex socioecological phenomena such as the LULC–infectious disease nexus.
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This content will become publicly available on March 1, 2026
Socioeconomic and Eco-Environmental Drivers Differentially Trigger and Amplify Bacterial and Viral Outbreaks of Zoonotic Pathogens
The frequency of infectious disease outbreaks and pandemics is rising, demanding an understanding of their drivers. Common wisdom suggests that increases in outbreak frequency are driven by socioeconomic factors such as globalization and urbanization, yet, the majority of disease outbreaks are caused by zoonotic pathogens that can be transmitted from animals to humans, suggesting the important role of ecological and environmental drivers. Previous studies of outbreak drivers have also failed to quantify the differences between major classes of pathogens, such as bacterial and viral pathogens. Here, we reconsider the observed drivers of a global sample of 300 zoonotic outbreaks, including the 100 largest outbreaks that occurred between 1977 and 2017. We show that socioeconomic factors more often trigger outbreaks of bacterial pathogens, whereas ecological and environmental factors trigger viral outbreaks. However, socioeconomic factors also act as amplifiers of viral outbreaks, with higher case numbers in viral outbreaks driven by a larger proportion of socioeconomic factors. Our results demonstrate that it is useful to consider the drivers of global disease patterns in aggregate due to commonalities that cross disease systems. However, our work also identifies important differences between the driver profiles of bacterial and viral diseases in aggregate.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2327844
- PAR ID:
- 10633604
- Publisher / Repository:
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11945676/
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Microorganisms
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2076-2607
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 621
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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