More Like this

1. Epidemiological impacts of post-infection mortality

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.0343  

   Saad-Roy, Chadi M.; Levin, Simon A.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Boots, Mike (July 2023, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences)

   Infectious diseases may cause some long-term damage to their host, leading to elevated mortality even after recovery. Mortality due to complications from so-called ‘long COVID’ is a stark illustration of this potential, but the impacts of such post-infection mortality (PIM) on epidemic dynamics are not known. Using an epidemiological model that incorporates PIM, we examine the importance of this effect. We find that in contrast to mortality during infection, PIM can induce epidemic cycling. The effect is due to interference between elevated mortality and reinfection through the previously infected susceptible pool. In particular, robust immunity (via decreased susceptibility to reinfection) reduces the likelihood of cycling; on the other hand, disease-induced mortality can interact with weak PIM to generate periodicity. In the absence of PIM, we prove that the unique endemic equilibrium is stable and therefore our key result is that PIM is an overlooked phenomenon that is likely to be destabilizing. Overall, given potentially widespread effects, our findings highlight the importance of characterizing heterogeneity in susceptibility (via both PIM and robustness of host immunity) for accurate epidemiological predictions. In particular, for diseases without robust immunity, such as SARS-CoV-2, PIM may underlie complex epidemiological dynamics especially in the context of seasonal forcing. 

   more » « less
2. Links between Innate and Adaptive Immunity Can Favor Evolutionary Persistence of Immunopathology

   https://doi.org/10.1093/icb/icae105  

   Cressler, Clayton_E; Adelman, James_S (July 2024, Integrative And Comparative Biology)

   Synopsis Immunopathology, or the harm caused to an organism’s own tissues during the activation of its immune system, carries substantial costs. Moreover, avoiding this self-harm may be an important mechanism underlying tolerance of infection, helping to reducing fitness costs without necessarily clearing parasites. Despite the apparent benefits of minimizing immunopathology, such damage persists across a range of host species. Prior work has explored a trade-off with resistance during a single infection as a potential driver of this persistence, with some collateral damage being unavoidable when killing parasites. Here, we present an additional trade-off that could favor the continued presence of immunopathology: robust immune responses during initial infection (e.g., innate immunity in vertebrates) can induce stronger memory (adaptive immunity), offering protection from future infections. We explore this possibility in an adaptive dynamics framework, using theoretical models parameterized from an ecologically relevant host-parasite system, house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) infected with the bacterial pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum. We find that some degree of immunopathology is often favored when immunopathology during first infection either reduces susceptibility to or enhances recovery from second infection. Further, interactions among factors like transmission rate, recovery rate, background mortality, and pathogen virulence also shape these evolutionary dynamics. Most notably, the evolutionary stability of investment in immunopathology is highly dependent upon the mechanism by which hosts achieve secondary protection (susceptibility vs. recovery), with the potential for abrupt evolutionary shifts between high and low investment under certain conditions. These results highlight the potential for immune memory to play an important role in the evolutionary persistence of immunopathology and the need for future empirical research to reveal the links between immunopathology during initial infections and longer-term immune protection. 

   more » « less
3. The dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a novel pathogen threat in a host metapopulation

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90407-z  

   Jiao, Jing; Fefferman, Nina (December 2021, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract When a novel disease strikes a naïve host population, there is evidence that the most immediate response can involve host evolution while the pathogen remains relatively unchanged. When hosts also live in metapopulations, there may be critical differences in the dynamics that emerge from the synergy among evolutionary, ecological, and epidemiological factors. Here we used a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery model to explore how spatial and temporal ecological factors may drive the epidemiological and rapid-evolutionary dynamics of host metapopulations. For simplicity, we assumed two host genotypes: wild type, which has a positive intrinsic growth rate in the absence of disease, and robust type, which is less likely to catch the infection given exposure but has a lower intrinsic growth rate in the absence of infection. We found that the robust-type host would be strongly selected for in the presence of disease when transmission differences between the two types is large. The growth rate of the wild type had dual but opposite effects on host composition: a smaller increase in wild-type growth increased wild-type competition and lead to periodical disease outbreaks over the first generations after pathogen introduction, while larger growth increased disease by providing more susceptibles, which increased robust host density but decreased periodical outbreaks. Increased migration had a similar impact as the increased differential susceptibility, both of which led to an increase in robust hosts and a decrease in periodical outbreaks. Our study provided a comprehensive understanding of the combined effects among migration, disease epidemiology, and host demography on host evolution with an unchanging pathogen. The findings have important implications for wildlife conservation and zoonotic disease control. 

   more » « less
4. Superinfection and the evolution of an initial asymptomatic stage

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202212  

   Saad-Roy, Chadi M.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Levin, Simon A.; Pellis, Lorenzo; Stage, Helena B.; van den Driessche, P.; Wingreen, Ned S. (January 2021, Royal Society Open Science)

   null (Ed.)

   Pathogens have evolved a variety of life-history strategies. An important strategy consists of successful transmission by an infected host before the appearance of symptoms, that is, while the host is still partially or fully asymptomatic. During this initial stage of infection, it is possible for another pathogen to superinfect an already infected host and replace the previously infecting pathogen. Here, we study the effect of superinfection during the first stage of an infection on the evolutionary dynamics of the degree to which the host is asymptomatic (host latency) in that same stage. We find that superinfection can lead to major differences in evolutionary behaviour. Most strikingly, the duration of immunity following infection can significantly influence pathogen evolutionary dynamics, whereas without superinfection the outcomes are independent of host immunity. For example, changes in host immunity can drive evolutionary transitions from a fully symptomatic to a fully asymptomatic first infection stage. Additionally, if superinfection relative to susceptible infection is strong enough, evolution can lead to a unique strategy of latency that corresponds to a local fitness minimum, and is therefore invasible by nearby mutants. Thus, this strategy is a branching point, and can lead to coexistence of pathogens with different latencies. Furthermore, in this new framework with superinfection, we also find that there can exist two interior singular strategies. Overall, new evolutionary outcomes can cascade from superinfection. 

   more » « less
5. Broad host susceptibility of North American amphibian species to Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans suggests high invasion potential and biodiversity risk

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38979-4  

   Gray, Matthew J.; Carter, Edward Davis; Piovia-Scott, Jonah; Cusaac, J. Patrick; Peterson, Anna C.; Whetstone, Ross D.; Hertz, Andreas; Muniz-Torres, Aura Y.; Bletz, Molly C.; Woodhams, Douglas C.; et al (December 2023, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ) is a fungal pathogen of amphibians that is emerging in Europe and could be introduced to North America through international trade or other pathways. To evaluate the risk of Bsal invasion to amphibian biodiversity, we performed dose-response experiments on 35 North American species from 10 families, including larvae from five species. We discovered that Bsal caused infection in 74% and mortality in 35% of species tested. Both salamanders and frogs became infected and developed Bsal chytridiomycosis. Based on our host susceptibility results, environmental suitability conditions for Bsal , and geographic ranges of salamanders in the United States, predicted biodiversity loss is expected to be greatest in the Appalachian Region and along the West Coast. Indices of infection and disease susceptibility suggest that North American amphibian species span a spectrum of vulnerability to Bsal chytridiomycosis and most amphibian communities will include an assemblage of resistant, carrier, and amplification species. Predicted salamander losses could exceed 80 species in the United States and 140 species in North America. 

   more » « less