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1. A generic risk assessment framework to evaluate historical and future climate-induced risk for rainfed corn and soybean yield in the U.S. Midwest

   Zhou, W. (August 2021, Weather and climate extremes)

   null (Ed.)

   Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation are expected to increase with global climate change, with more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting extreme events, posing greater challenges for the security of global food production. Here we proposed a generic framework to assess the impact of climate-induced crop yield risk under both current and future scenarios by combining a stochastic model for synthetic climate generation with a well-validated statistical crop yield model. The synthetic climate patterns were generated using the extended Empirical Orthogonal Function method based on historically observed and projected climate conditions. We applied our framework to assess the corn and soybean yield risk in the U.S. Midwest for historical and future climate conditions. We found that: (1) in the U.S. Midwest, about 45% and 40% of the interannual variability in corn and soybean yield, respectively, can be explained by the climate; (2) the risk level is higher in the southwest and northwest regions of the U.S. Midwest corresponding to 25% yield reduction for both corn and soybean compared to other regions; (3) the severity for the 1988 and 2012 major droughts quantified by our method represent 21-year and 30-year events for corn, and 7-year and 12-year events for soybean, respectively; (4) the crop yield risk will increase under a future climate scenario (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 or RCP 8.5 at 2050) compared with the current climate condition, with averaged yield decreases and yield variability increases for both corn and soybean. The framework and the results of this study enable applications for risk management policies and practices for the agriculture sectors. 

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2. Managing Crop Yield Risk at the Kellogg Biological Station, Hickory Corners, MI (2022 to 2023)

   https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/b0e1cd7e724c1b5d7579ab2a810c6e8b  

   Swinton, Scott; Loduca, Natalie (January 2025, Environmental Data Initiative)

   Dataset Abstract As farmers adapt to changing climate, they modify practices and technologies to manage evolving risk. Adaptive changes may be as small as adjusting a crop insurance coverage level or as large as investing in an irrigation system. Farmer attitudes toward risk and their subjective perceptions of the evolving probability distributions of crop yields drive adaptation decisions. To understand climate change adaptation behavior by farmers, we undertook the study “Elicitation and Estimation of Risk Preference and Subjective Probabilities to Understand Farmer Decisions on Climate Change Adaptation.” We interviewed 44 Michigan corn and soybean farmers to elicit mathematical expressions of their risk attitudes. During the interviews, each completed two sets of lottery choices, the first using 25 general risky gambles and the second using 18 risky gambles in a crop farming context that enable econometric estimation of risk attitudes (using variants of Expected Utility Theory). Next, they answered questions about corn yield probability distributions over the past ten years and the next ten years (triangular distributions of minimum, most likely, and maximum values) with no water management, irrigation, tile drainage, and drought-resistant seed. After that, they reported on water management investments that they have made in past and intend to make in future. Finally, they provided background information about themselves and their farms. This study (MSU Study ID: STUDY00007871) was submitted to the Michigan State University Institutional Review Board (IRB) by principal investigator Scott Swinton. On July 5, 2022, it was determined to be exempt under 45 CFR 46.104(d) 3(i)(B). Data collection took place during September 2022 through March 2023. Farmer respondents completed the survey instrument on Qualtrics with assistance from graduate students in Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics at Michigan State University at various MSU Extension offices and restaurants around southern Michigan. Respondents received lunch plus $50 for participating and a credit of $40 that could be gained or lost based on the outcome from one of the risky gambles (included to encourage truthful responses [“incentive compatibility”]). original data source http://lter.kbs.msu.edu/datasets/249 

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3. Changing climates, changing lives: Voices of a Brazilian Amazon farming community in a time of climate crisis

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000522  

   Monteverde, Corrie; Quandt, Amy; Gilberto_de_Souza_Ribeiro, João; De_Sales, Fernando (November 2024, PLOS Climate)

   Ahmed, Ferdous (Ed.)

   This study examines the lived experiences and adaptation strategies of small-scale farmers in the southwestern Brazilian Amazonian state of Rondônia, amidst escalating climate challenges. Through nine in-depth interviews, it uncovers the impact of unpredictable weather, increased temperatures, and shifting precipitation on agriculture and livelihoods. Participants, ranging from family farmers to agricultural collective members, detail shifts from traditional crop cultivation to more resilient practices like cattle ranching and dairy production. The narratives reveal a deep understanding of local climate volatility and its direct effects on water availability, crop viability, and livestock productivity. Farmers describe adaptation measures including new crop varieties, irrigation systems, and strategic land use to enhance biodiversity and mitigate climate change effects. Despite these adaptations, challenges like water scarcity, high input costs, and the need for technical assistance remain prominent. Farmers emphasize the need for stronger support systems, highlighting community solidarity, governmental aid, and access to sustainable technologies and education as essential for climate adaptation. They call for policies providing equitable resources and support, underscoring the importance of inclusive climate governance that acknowledges the unique vulnerabilities and contributions of Rondônia’s agricultural sector. This research contributes to understanding how climate change reshapes rural Amazonian communities, arguing that ongoing deforestation and climatic changes threaten regional agricultural stability. It advocates for targeted policy interventions to provide technical assistance for sustainable farming and climate adaptation, alongside mechanisms to support fair market pricing. These measures are essential for enhancing the resilience and sustainability of local farming communities amidst climate change. 

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4. Next‐Generation Sustainable Food Production Through Integrative Biotechnology, AI , and Climate‐Resilient Innovations

   https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.70252  

   Katam, Chaquayla; Maqsood, Hajra; Bucci, Brooke; Chen, Sixue (May 2026, Food and Energy Security)

   ABSTRACT By 2050, the global population is projected to reach ~10 billion, leading to 50% increase in food demand. This growth will place immense pressure on agricultural systems that are already struggling with the impacts of climate change and resource depletion. Key challenges include erratic rainfall patterns, increased occurrence of extreme weather events, land degradation, and freshwater scarcity. To ensure global food security, it is critical to revolutionize food production strategies by shifting toward sustainable, climate‐resilient practices. This review highlights the following advances: (1) pioneering protein production methods (cultured meat and precision fermentation); (2) soilless cultivation systems (hydroponics, aeroponics, and aquaponics) combined with advanced molecular engineering (gene editing and photosynthesis engineering); and (3) emergence of carbon‐sequestering crops for agriculture to function as a carbon sink, helping to mitigate climate change. The integration of artificial intelligence, automation, and precision agriculture enables us to monitor and manage soil, crops, and climate conditions in real‐time, thereby maximizing yield and resource utilization efficiency. These innovations represent a transformative shift in global food production, aligning agricultural productivity with environmental sustainability. 

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5. Global risk of heat stress to cattle from climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aceb79  

   North, Michelle A; Franke, James A; Ouweneel, Birgitt; Trisos, Christopher H (August 2023, Environmental Research Letters)

   Cattle farming is a major source of global food production and livelihoods that is being impacted by climate change. However, despite numerous studies reporting local-scale heat impacts, quantifying the global risk of heat stress to cattle from climate change remains challenging. We conducted a global synthesis of documented heat stress for cattle using 164 records to identify temperature-humidity conditions associated with decreased production and increased mortality, then projected how future greenhouse gas emissions and land-use decisions will limit or exacerbate heat stress, and mapped this globally. The median threshold for the onset of negative impacts on cattle was a temperature-humidity index of 68.8 (95% C.I.: 67.3–70.7). Currently, almost 80% of cattle globally are exposed to conditions exceeding this threshold for at least 30 days a year. For global warming above 4°C, heat stress of over 180 days per year emerges in temperate regions, and year-round heat stress expands across all tropical regions by 2100. Limiting global warming to 2°C, limits expansion of 180 days of heat stress to sub-tropical regions. In all scenarios, severity of heat stress increases most in tropical regions, reducing global milk yields. Future land-use decisions are an important driver of risk. Under a low environmental protection scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0), the greatest expansion of cattle farming is projected for tropical regions (especially Amazon, Congo Basin, and India), where heat stress is projected to increase the most. This would expose over 500 million more cattle in these regions to severe heat risk by 2090 compared to 2010. A less resource-intensive and higher environmental protection scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) reduces heat risk for cattle by at least 50% in Asia, 63% in South America, and 84% in Africa. These results highlight how societal choices that expand cattle production in tropical forest regions are unsustainable, both worsening climate change and exposing hundreds of millions more cattle to large increases in severe, year-round heat stress. 

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