Demographic factors are fundamental in shaping infectious disease dynamics. Aspects of populations that create structure, like age and sex, can affect patterns of transmission, infection intensity and population outcomes. However, studies rarely link these processes from individual to population-scale effects. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying demographic differences in disease are frequently unclear. Here, we explore sex-biased infections for a multi-host fungal disease of bats, white-nose syndrome, and link disease-associated mortality between sexes, the distortion of sex ratios and the potential mechanisms underlying sex differences in infection. We collected data on host traits, infection intensity and survival of five bat species at 42 sites across seven years. We found females were more infected than males for all five species. Females also had lower apparent survival over winter and accounted for a smaller proportion of populations over time. Notably, female-biased infections were evident by early hibernation and likely driven by sex-based differences in autumn mating behaviour. Male bats were more active during autumn which likely reduced replication of the cool-growing fungus. Higher disease impacts in female bats may have cascading effects on bat populations beyond the hibernation season by limiting recruitment and increasing the risk of Allee effects.
more »
« less
The landscape of natural selection during early population establishment in an invasive lizard
Abstract Populations during early stages of establishment are sensitive to forms of demographic regulation coinciding with rapid growth, which may also coincide with specific patterns of natural selection due to demographic variation. Understanding how selection varies during the establishment of new populations, however, is complicated by the constraint of knowing the precise age of a population as it grows over time. To address this, we established six brown anole (Anolis sagrei) populations on spoil islands in Florida and manipulated initial sex ratios to understand how natural selection is influenced by the demographic composition of founding populations. We found that initial sex ratios of founding populations led to age-specific patterns of natural selection. Juveniles experienced stronger selection in populations that began with a female-biased sex ratio, and the strength of natural selection on juvenile size strengthened with increasing population density. We also found substantial variation in selection, suggesting that the relationship between phenotypes and fitness across early generations of a population is not consistent over time. As a result, variation in natural selection driven by demographic aspects within populations may provide opportunities for rapid population growth and novel evolutionary trajectories during the earliest stages of establishment.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1942145
- PAR ID:
- 10643194
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Evolution
- ISSN:
- 0014-3820
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever‐greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well‐advanced theory of age‐structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age‐dependency in demographic rates and the year‐to‐year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age‐specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage‐ vs. age‐based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival‐fecundity‐trade‐offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age‐specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.more » « less
-
The influence of genetic drift on population dynamics during Pleistocene glacial cycles is well understood, but the role of selection in shaping patterns of genomic variation during these events is less explored. We resequenced whole genomes to investigate how demography and natural selection interact to generate the genomic landscapes of Downy and Hairy Woodpecker, species codistributed in previously glaciated North America. First, we explored the spatial and temporal patterns of genomic diversity produced by neutral evolution. Next, we tested (i) whether levels of nucleotide diversity along the genome are correlated with intrinsic genomic properties, such as recombination rate and gene density, and (ii) whether different demographic trajectories impacted the efficacy of selection. Our results revealed cycles of bottleneck and expansion, and genetic structure associated with glacial refugia. Nucleotide diversity varied widely along the genome, but this variation was highly correlated between the species, suggesting the presence of conserved genomic features. In both taxa, nucleotide diversity was positively correlated with recombination rate and negatively correlated with gene density, suggesting that linked selection played a role in reducing diversity. Despite strong fluctuations in effective population size, the maintenance of relatively large populations during glaciations may have facilitated selection. Under these conditions, we found evidence that the individual demographic trajectory of populations modulated linked selection, with purifying selection being more efficient in removing deleterious alleles in large populations. These results highlight that while genome-wide variation reflects the expected signature of demographic change during climatic perturbations, the interaction of multiple processes produces a predictable and highly heterogeneous genomic landscape.more » « less
-
Abstract Conspecific populations living in adjacent but contrasting microenvironments represent excellent systems for studying natural selection. These systems are valuable because gene flow is expected to force genetic homogeneity except at loci experiencing divergent selection. A history of reciprocal transplant and common garden studies in such systems, and a growing number of genomic studies, have contributed to understanding how selection operates in natural populations. While selection can vary across different fitness components and life stages, few studies have investigated how this ultimately affects allele frequencies and the maintenance of divergence between populations. Here, we study two sunflower ecotypes in distinct, adjacent habitats by combining demographic models with genome‐wide sequence data to estimate fitness and allele frequency change at multiple life stages. This framework allows us to estimate that only local ecotypes are likely to experience positive population growth (λ > 1) and that the maintenance of divergent adaptation appears to be mediated via habitat‐ and life stage‐specific selection. We identify genetic variation, significantly driven by loci in chromosomal inversions, associated with different life history strategies in neighbouring ecotypes that optimize different fitness components and may contribute to the maintenance of distinct ecotypes.more » « less
-
ABSTRACT Theory suggests that the drivers of demographic variation and local adaptation are shared and may feedback on one other. Despite some evidence for these links in controlled settings, the relationship between local adaptation and demography remains largely unexplored in natural conditions. Using 10 years of demographic data and two reciprocal transplant experiments, we tested predictions about the relationship between the magnitude of local adaptation and demographic variation (population growth rates and their elasticities to vital rates) across 10 populations of a well‐studied annual plant. In both years, we found a strong unimodal relationship between mean home‐away local adaptation and stochastic population growth rates. Other predicted links were either weakly or not supported by our data. Our results suggest that declining and rapidly growing populations exhibit reduced local adaptation, potentially due to maladaptation and relaxed selection, respectively.more » « less
An official website of the United States government
