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Abstract Increased plant growth under elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) slows the pace of climate warming and underlies projections of terrestrial carbon (C) and climate dynamics. However, this important ecosystem service may be diminished by concurrent changes to vegetation carbon‐to‐nitrogen (C:N) ratios. Despite clear observational evidence of increasing foliar C:N under elevated CO2, our understanding of potential ecological consequences of foliar stoichiometric flexibility is incomplete. Here, we illustrate that when we incorporated CO2‐driven increases in foliar stoichiometry into the Community Land Model the projected land C sink decreased two‐fold by the end of the century compared to simulations with fixed foliar chemistry. Further, CO2‐driven increases in foliar C:N profoundly altered Earth's hydrologic cycle, reducing evapotranspiration and increasing runoff, and reduced belowground N cycling rates. These findings underscore the urgency of further research to examine both the direct and indirect effects of changing foliar stoichiometry on soil N cycling and plant productivity.
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Projected runoff declines from plant physiological effects on precipitation
Abstract The impact of plants on runoff under high atmospheric CO2is a major uncertainty for future water resources. Theory and Earth system models (ESMs) suggest that stricter plant stomatal regulation under high CO2will reduce transpiration, potentially boosting runoff. Yet, across a 12-member ensemble of idealized ESM simulations that isolate plant responses to CO2, we show that lower transpiration robustly enhances runoff over only 5% of modelled global land area. Precipitation changes are five times more important than transpiration changes in driving runoff responses and are a significant signal of CO2physiological forcing over 31–57% of land areas across models. Crucially, ESMs largely disagree on where physiologically forced precipitation changes occur but agree that plant responses in most locations are as likely to reduce runoff as increase it. These results imply that large model uncertainties in precipitation responses, rather than transpiration responses, explain why ESMs disagree on plant physiologically driven runoff changes.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1848018
- PAR ID:
- 10643677
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Nature
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Water
- Volume:
- 3
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2731-6084
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 167 to 177
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00361-z
