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Abstract During 2013–16 and 2018–22, marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the North Pacific, exhibiting similar extensive coverage, lengthy duration, and significant intensity but with different warming centers. The warming center of the 2013–16 event was in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), while the 2018–22 event had warming centers in both the GOA and the coast of Japan (COJ). Our observational analysis indicates that these two events can be considered as two MHW variants induced by a basinwide MHW conditioning mode in the North Pacific. Both variants were driven thermodynamically by atmospheric wave trains propagating from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, within the conditioning mode. The origin and propagating path of these wave trains play a crucial role in determining the specific type of MHW variant. When a stronger wave train originates from the tropical central (western) Pacific, it leads to the GOA (COJ) variant. The cross-basin nature of the wave trains enables the two MHW variants to be accompanied by a tripolar pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic but with opposite phases. The association of these two MHW variants with the Atlantic Ocean also manifests in the decadal variations of their occurrence. Both variants tend to occur more frequently during the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation but less so during the negative phase. This study underscores the importance of cross-basin associations between the North Pacific and North Atlantic in shaping the dynamics of North Pacific MHWs.
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Trans-basin interaction sustains multi-year marine heatwaves in the Gulf of Alaska
Abstract Multi-year marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) are major climate events with lasting ecological and economic effects. Though often seen as local Pacific phenomena, our study shows their persistence depends on trans-basin interactions between the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Using observational data and climate model experiments, we find that prolonged MHWs occur as sequential warming episodes triggered by atmospheric wave trains crossing ocean basins. These wave trains alter surface heat flux, initiating MHWs in the GOA and changing North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In turn, Atlantic SST anomalies reinforce wave activity, fueling subsequent MHW episodes in a feedback loop. This mechanism appears in historical events (1949–52, 1962–65, 2013–16, and 2018–22), highlighting MHWs as a trans-basin phenomenon. Our findings link GOA MHWs to trans-basin atmospheric wave dynamics and identify North Atlantic SSTs as a potential predictor of their duration.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2109539
- PAR ID:
- 10644548
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Nature
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2397-3722
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01187-6
