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Abstract Data from tide gauges and satellite altimeters are used to provide an up‐to‐date assessment of the mean seasonal cycle in sea level () over most of the global coastal ocean. The tide gauge records, where available, depict a seasonal cycle with complex spatial structure along and across continental boundaries, and an annual oscillation dominating over semiannual variability, except in a few regions (e.g., the northwestern Gulf of Mexico). Comparisons between tide gauge and altimeter data reveal substantial root‐mean‐square differences and only slight improvements in agreement when using along‐track data optimized for coastal applications. Quantification of the uncertainty in the altimeter products, inferred from comparing gridded and along‐track estimates, indicate that differences to tide gauges partly reflect short‐scale features of the seasonal cycle in proximity to the coasts. We additionally probe the seasonal budget using satellite gravimetry‐based manometric estimates and steric terms calculated from the World Ocean Atlas 2023. Focusing on global median values, the sum of the estimated steric and manometric harmonics can explain 65% (respectively 40%) of the annual (semiannual) variance in the coastal observations. We identify several regions, for example, the Australian seaboard, where the seasonal budget is not closed and illustrate that such analysis is mainly limited by the coarse spatial resolution of present satellite‐derived mass change products. For most regions with a sufficiently tight budget closure, we find that although the importance of the manometric term generally increases with decreasing water depth, steric contributions are non‐negligible near coastlines, especially at the annual frequency.
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This content will become publicly available on May 1, 2026
Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Storm Surge Along the Global Coastline
Abstract Storm surge events are a key driver of widespread flooding, particularly when combined with astronomical tides superimposed on mean sea level (MSL). Coastal storms exhibit seasonal variability which translates into a seasonal cycle in storm surge activity. Understanding changes in the seasonal storm surge cycle is critical as both changes in the amplitude and the phase may alter the flood potential, especially when compounded with changes in the MSL cycle. Here, a comprehensive analysis of the storm surge seasonal cycle and its links to the MSL seasonal cycle is performed using tide gauge observations from a quasi‐global data set. Harmonic analysis is used to assess the mean and changing storm surge seasonal cycles over time. Extreme value analysis is applied to explore the effect of seasonal changes on storm surge return levels. We also quantify the influence of large‐scale climate modes, and we compare how the seasonality of storm surge and MSL have changed relative to each other. The peak of the storm surge cycle typically occurs during winter for tide gauges outside of tropical cyclone regions, where there is also greater variability in the phase of the storm surge cycle. The timing of the peak varied by more than a month at 21% of the tide gauges analyzed. The MSL and storm surge cycles peaked at least once within 30 days over the historic records at 74% of tide gauges.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2141461
- PAR ID:
- 10646576
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Volume:
- 130
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2169-9275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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