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The use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) models in predicting student learning and mastery, especially in mathematics, is a well-established and proven approach in learning analytics. In this work, we report on our analysis examining the generalizability of BKT models across academic years attributed to ”detector rot.” We compare the generalizability of Knowledge Training (KT) models by comparing model performance in predicting student knowledge within the academic year and across academic years. Models were trained on data from two popular open-source curricula available through Open Educational Resources. We observed that the models generally were highly performant in predicting student learning within an academic year, whereas certain academic years were more generalizable than other academic years. We posit that the Knowledge Tracing models are relatively stable in terms of performance across academic years yet can still be susceptible to systemic changes and underlying learner behavior. As indicated by the evidence in this paper, we posit that learning platforms leveraging KT models need to be mindful of systemic changes or drastic changes in certain user demographics.
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Concept Drift Detection for Knowledge Tracing
Knowledge Tracing models have been used to predict and understand student learning processes for over two decades, spanning multiple generations of student learners who have different relationships with the technologies used to provide them instruction and practice. Given that student experiences of education have changed dramatically in that time span, can we assume that the student learning process modeled by KT is stable over time? We investigate the robustness of four different KT models over five school years and find evidence of significant model decline that is more pronounced in the more sophisticated models. We then propose multiple avenues of future work to better predict and understand this phenomenon. In addition, to foster more longitudinal testing of novel KT architectures, we will be releasing student interaction data spanning those five years.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2225091
- PAR ID:
- 10647442
- Editor(s):
- Mills, Caitlin; Alexandron, Giora; Taibi, Davide; Lo_Bosco, Giosuè; Paquette, Luc
- Publisher / Repository:
- International Educational Data Mining Society
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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The use of Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) models in predicting student learning and mastery, especially in mathematics, is a well-established and proven approach in learning analytics. In this work, we report on our analysis examining the generalizability of BKT models across academic years attributed to ”detector rot.” We compare the generalizability of Knowledge Training (KT) models by comparing model performance in predicting student knowledge within the academic year and across academic years. Models were trained on data from two popular open-source curricula available through Open Educational Resources. We observed that the models generally were highly performant in predicting student learning within an academic year, whereas certain academic years were more generalizable than other academic years. We posit that the Knowledge Tracing models are relatively stable in terms of performance across academic years yet can still be susceptible to systemic changes and underlying learner behavior. As indicated by the evidence in this paper, we posit that learning platforms leveraging KT models need to be mindful of systemic changes or drastic changes in certain user demographics.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15870129
