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This content will become publicly available on August 1, 2026

Title: Stochastic Fluctuations of the Facultative Endosymbiont Wolbachia due to Finite Host Population Size
ABSTRACT Many insects and other animals host heritable endosymbionts that alter host fitness and reproduction. The prevalence of facultative endosymbionts can fluctuate in host populations across time and geography for reasons that are poorly understood. This is particularly true for maternally transmittedWolbachiabacteria, which infect roughly half of all insect species. For instance, the frequencies of severalwMel‐likeWolbachia, includingwMel in hostDrosophila melanogaster, fluctuate over time in certain host populations, but the specific conditions that generate temporal variation inWolbachiaprevalence are unresolved. We implemented a discrete generation model in the new R packagesymbiontmodelerto evaluate how finite‐population stochasticity contributes toWolbachiafluctuations over time in simulated host populations under a variety of conditions. Using empirical estimates from naturalWolbachia‐Drosophilasystems, we explored how stochasticity is determined by a broad range of factors, including host population size, maternal transmission rates, andWolbachiaeffects on host fitness (modeled as fecundity) and reproduction (cytoplasmic incompatibility; CI). While stochasticity generally increases when host fitness benefits and CI are relaxed, we found that a decline in the maternal transmission rate had the strongest relative impact on increasing the size of fluctuations. We infer that non‐ or weak‐CI‐causing strains likewMel, which often show evidence of imperfect maternal transmission, tend to generate larger stochastic fluctuations compared to strains that cause strong CI, likewRi inD. simulans. Additional factors, such as fluctuating host fitness effects, are required to explain the largest examples of temporal variation inWolbachia. The conditions we simulate here usingsymbiontmodelerserve as a jumping‐off point for understanding drivers of temporal and spatial variation in the prevalence ofWolbachia, the most common endosymbionts found in nature.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2316289
PAR ID:
10651926
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley-Blackwell
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Ecology and Evolution
Volume:
15
Issue:
8
ISSN:
2045-7758
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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