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Abstract End of 21st‐century hydroclimate projections suggest an expansion of subtropical dry zones, with Mediterranean and Sahel regions becoming much drier. However, paleobotanical assemblage evidence from the middle Miocene (17‐12 Ma), suggests both regions were instead humid environments. Here we show that by modifying regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in an Earth System Model (CESM1.2) simulation of the middle Miocene, the increased ocean evaporation and integrated water vapor flux overrides any drying effects associated with warming‐induced land‐surface evaporation driven by atmospheric CO2concentrations. These modifications markedly reduce the bias in the model‐data comparison for this period. A vegetation model (BIOME4) forced with simulated climatologies predicts both regions were dominated by mixed forest, which is largely consistent with the paleobotanical record. This study unveils the potential for wetter subtropical Mediterranean climates associated with warming, presenting an alternative scenario from future drying projections with localized SST warming governing regional climate change.
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This content will become publicly available on November 1, 2026
MioVeg1: A Global Middle Miocene Vegetation Reconstruction for Climate Modeling
Abstract Climate models require boundary condition information, such as vegetation and soil distributions because they influence the mean state climate, and feedbacks can significantly influence regional climate and climate sensitivity to CO2forcing. Information about past distributions comes primarily from the paleobotanical record, which is often supplemented by a vegetation model to fill data gaps. For recent past periods such as the Pliocene, a quantitative suitability assessment of these vegetation model simulations is sufficient. However, the Miocene Climate Optimum spanning 16.9–14.7 Ma was the warmest period on Earth over the last ∼25 million years and models struggle to reproduce those conditions for the range of paleogeographies and CO2concentrations tested, particularly at high latitudes. Here we bring together the Miocene modeling and data communities to update previous vegetation reconstructions used for climate modeling with a new regional approach that relaxes the requirement for a single model simulation to be used, blending instead simulations forced by different paleogeographies and CO2concentrations. This ensures the simulated vegetation is first, and foremost, consistent with the paleorecord and provides a baseline for future comparisons. The reconstruction shows global increases in forest cover at all latitudes as compared to today and extensive C3grasslands across the high northern latitudes. Data gaps at high latitudes are filled with vegetation models forced by higher CO2concentrations than were required at lower latitudes consistent with the inability of current models to simulate Miocene high latitude warmth.
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- PAR ID:
- 10655521
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
- Volume:
- 40
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 2572-4517
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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