An official website of the United States government
Rüppell's vultures are critically endangered, primarily due to anthropogenic activities such as habitat degradation, climate change, and intentional and unintentional poisoning, which have led to the loss of nesting and breeding sites. To aid in the conservation and protection of these species, habitat evaluation and niche mapping are crucial. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a valuable tool in conservation planning, providing insights into the ecological requirements of species under conservation concerns. This study employed an ensembling modeling approach to assess the habitat suitability and distribution of Rüppell's vultures across Kenya. We utilized four algorithms; Gradient Boosting Machine, Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Model, and Random Forest. Data on Rüppell's vultures were sourced from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, while key environmental variables influencing the species' distribution were obtained from WorldClim. The resultant species distribution map was overlaid with a conservation area map to evaluate the overlap between suitable habitats and existing protected areas. Our analysis identified suitable habitats in regions such as the Masai Mara Game Reserve, Mount Kenya National Park, Nairobi National Park, Tsavo East National Park, and Hell's Gate National Park, with the majority of these habitats located outside protected areas, except those within Hell's Gate National Park. Precipitation and elevation emerged as the primary environmental predictors of the distribution of Rüppell's vultures. Based on these findings, we recommend establishing vulture sanctuaries in suitable habitats and hotspots to enhance the conservation of Rüppell's vultures outside the protected areas.
more »
« less
This content will become publicly available on November 1, 2026
Hierarchical Habitat Selection for Reconstructing Past and Present Niches and Distributions of Data‐Limited Species Under Climate Change
Understanding ecological niche shifts is crucial for predicting future changes under climate change. Modelling past niche dynamics provides a baseline for gauging the severity and direction of ongoing shifts. However, reconstructing historical habitats for data‐limited, range‐restricted species is challenging, as sparse species records hinder robust inference. We introduce and apply a hierarchical modelling framework to reconstruct historical habitats, assess niche shifts over time, and estimate prediction uncertainty for data‐limited species. We applied this framework to the Sierra Nevada Grey‐crowned Rosy‐Finch to evaluate changes in breeding habitat suitability under climate change. We applied a hierarchical habitat selection approach based on three orders. Available habitats of finer orders were selected based on insights from broader orders. For each covariate we defined a range of nested scales of effects and employed indicator variable selection and spike‐and‐slab priors for variable selection. Historical niche relationships (1954–1980) were used as priors alongside current survey and bioclimatic data to characterise present‐day suitable habitats (2018–2022), estimate niche shifts, validate models and assess conservation implications.We found substantial habitat declines, with suitability contracting by 40%–64% across habitat selection orders and suitable breeding areas shifting upslope by approximately 280 m. Historically, suitable habitats were characterised by rugged, high‐elevation terrain with persistent snow. Contemporary distributions show reduced topographic constraints but increased reliance on diminishing snow resources, suggesting potential niche expansion.Our approach effectively identified key variables across habitat selection orders, revealing both niche contraction and expansion driven by reduced snow persistence, processes likely affecting many alpine species globally. This framework offers a robust tool for characterising habitat changes for data‐limited species, with broad applicability for conservation planning. It also highlights the dynamic role of scale in species niches across space and time.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2222526
- PAR ID:
- 10661463
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Diversity and Distributions
- Volume:
- 31
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 1366-9516
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
The critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) faces significant anthropogenic mortality. Recent climatic shifts in traditional habitats have caused abrupt changes in right whale distributions, challenging traditional conservation strategies. Tools that can help anticipate new areas where E. glacialis might forage could inform proactive management. In this study, we trained boosted regression tree algorithms with fine-resolution modeled environmental covariates to build prey copepod (Calanus) species-specific models of historical and future distributions of E. glacialis foraging habitat on the Northwest Atlantic Shelf, from the Mid-Atlantic Bight to the Labrador Shelf. We determined foraging suitability using E. glacialis foraging thresholds for Calanus spp. adjusted by a bathymetry-dependent bioenergetic correction factor based on known foraging behavior constraints. Models were then projected to 2046–2065 and 2066–2085 modeled climatologies for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with the goal of identifying potential shifts in foraging habitat. The models had generally high performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve > 0.9) and indicated ocean bottom conditions and bathymetry as important covariates. Historical (1990–2015) projections aligned with known areas of high foraging habitat suitability as well as potential suitable areas on the Labrador Shelf. Future projections suggested that the suitability of potential foraging habitat would decrease in parts of the Gulf of Maine and southwestern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, while potential habitat would be maintained or improved on the western Scotian Shelf, in the Bay of Fundy, on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelves, and at some locations along the continental shelf breaks. Overall, suitable habitat is projected to decline. Directing some survey efforts toward emerging potential foraging habitats can enable conservation management to anticipate the type of distribution shifts that have led to high mortality in the past.more » « less
-
Abstract BACKGROUNDOstrinia furnacalis(ACB) andOstrinia nubilalis(ECB) are devastating pests of the agricultural crop maize worldwide. However, little is known about their potential distribution and niche shifts during their global invasion. Since long‐term selection to past climate variability has shaped their historical niche breadth, such niche shifts may provide an alternative basis for understanding their responses to present and future climate change. By integrating the niche unfilling, stability, and expansion situations into a single framework, our study quantifies the patterns of niche shift in the spatial distribution of these two pests during the different periods. RESULTSOur results show that the overall suitable habitats of ACB and ECB in the future decrease but highly and extremely suitable habitat will become more widespread, suggesting these two insects may occur more frequently in specific regions. Compared with Southeast Asia and Australia, the ACB niche in China exhibited expansion rather than unfilling. For ECB, initial niches have a tendency to be retained in Eurasia despite there also being potential for expansion in North America. The niche equivalency and similarity test results further indicate that niche shifts were common for both ACB and ECB in different survival regions during their colonization of new habitat and their suitable habitat changes during the paleoclimate were associated with climatic changes. CONCLUSIONSThese findings improve our understanding of the ecological characteristics of ACB and ECB worldwide, and will be useful in the development of prevention and control strategies for two insect pests worldwide. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.more » « less
-
Although research on wildlife species across taxa has shown that males and females may differentially select habitat, sex-specific habitat suitability models for endangered species are uncommon. We developed sex-specific models for Bengal tigers (Panthera tigris) based on camera trapping data collected from 20 January to 22 March 2010 within Chitwan National Park, Nepal, and its buffer zone. We compared these to a sex-indiscriminate habitat suitability model to assess the benefits of a sex-specific approach to habitat suitability modeling. Our sex-specific models produced more informative and detailed habitat suitability maps and highlighted vital differences in the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for males and females, specific associations with different vegetation types, and habitat use near human settlements. Improving and refining habitat models for this and other critically endangered species provides the necessary information to meet established conservation goals and population recovery targets.more » « less
-
Abstract ContextShifts in climate and land use have dramatically reshaped ecosystems, impacting the distribution and status of wildlife populations. For many species, data gaps limit inference regarding population trends and links to environmental change. This deficiency hinders our ability to enact meaningful conservation measures to protect at risk species. ObjectivesWe investigated historical drivers of environmental niche change for three North American weasel species (American ermine, least weasel, and long-tailed weasel) to understand their response to environmental change. MethodsUsing species occurrence records and corresponding environmental data, we developed species-specific environmental niche models for the contiguous United States (1938–2021). We generated annual hindcasted predictions of the species’ environmental niche, assessing changes in distribution, area, and fragmentation in response to environmental change. ResultsWe identified a 54% decline in suitable habitat alongside high levels of fragmentation for least weasels and region-specific trends for American ermine and long-tailed weasels; declines in the West and increased suitability in the East. Climate and land use were important predictors of the environmental niche for all species. Changes in habitat amount and distribution reflected widespread land use changes over the past century while declines in southern and low-elevation areas are consistent with impacts from climatic change. ConclusionsOur models uncovered land use and climatic change as potential historic drivers of population change for North American weasels and provide a basis for management recommendations and targeted survey efforts. We identified potentially at-risk populations and a need for landscape-level planning to support weasel populations amid ongoing environmental changes.more » « less
