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1. Inferring the Total-Evidence Timescale of Marattialean Fern Evolution in the Face of Model Sensitivity

   https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syab020  

   May, Michael R; Contreras, Dori L; Sundue, Michael A; Nagalingum, Nathalie S; Looy, Cindy V; Rothfels, Carl J (March 2021, Systematic Biology)

   Folk, Ryan (Ed.)

   Abstract Phylogenetic divergence-time estimation has been revolutionized by two recent developments: 1) total-evidence dating (or "tip-dating") approaches that allow for the incorporation of fossils as tips in the analysis, with their phylogenetic and temporal relationships to the extant taxa inferred from the data and 2) the fossilized birth-death (FBD) class of tree models that capture the processes that produce the tree (speciation, extinction, and fossilization) and thus provide a coherent and biologically interpretable tree prior. To explore the behavior of these methods, we apply them to marattialean ferns, a group that was dominant in Carboniferous landscapes prior to declining to its modest extant diversity of slightly over 100 species. We show that tree models have a dramatic influence on estimates of both divergence times and topological relationships. This influence is driven by the strong, counter-intuitive informativeness of the uniform tree prior, and the inherent nonidentifiability of divergence-time models. In contrast to the strong influence of the tree models, we find minor effects of differing the morphological transition model or the morphological clock model. We compare the performance of a large pool of candidate models using a combination of posterior-predictive simulation and Bayes factors. Notably, an FBD model with epoch-specific speciation and extinction rates was strongly favored by Bayes factors. Our best-fitting model infers stem and crown divergences for the Marattiales in the mid-Devonian and Late Cretaceous, respectively, with elevated speciation rates in the Mississippian and elevated extinction rates in the Cisuralian leading to a peak diversity of $${\sim}$$2800 species at the end of the Carboniferous, representing the heyday of the Psaroniaceae. This peak is followed by the rapid decline and ultimate extinction of the Psaroniaceae, with their descendants, the Marattiaceae, persisting at approximately stable levels of diversity until the present. This general diversification pattern appears to be insensitive to potential biases in the fossil record; despite the preponderance of available fossils being from Pennsylvanian coal balls, incorporating fossilization-rate variation does not improve model fit. In addition, by incorporating temporal data directly within the model and allowing for the inference of the phylogenetic position of the fossils, our study makes the surprising inference that the clade of extant Marattiales is relatively young, younger than any of the fossils historically thought to be congeneric with extant species. This result is a dramatic demonstration of the dangers of node-based approaches to divergence-time estimation, where the assignment of fossils to particular clades is made a priori (earlier node-based studies that constrained the minimum ages of extant genera based on these fossils resulted in much older age estimates than in our study) and of the utility of explicit models of morphological evolution and lineage diversification. [Bayesian model comparison; Carboniferous; divergence-time estimation; fossil record; fossilized birth–death; lineage diversification; Marattiales; models of morphological evolution; Psaronius; RevBayes.] 

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2. Inferring the Total-Evidence Timescale of Marattialean Fern Evolution in the Face of Model Sensitivity.

   May, M.R.; Contreras, D.L.; Sundue, M.A.; Nagalingum, N.S.; Looy, C.V.; Rothfels, C.J. (March 2021, Systematic biology)

   Ryan Folk (Ed.)

   Phylogenetic divergence-time estimation has been revolutionized by two recent developments: 1) total-evidence dating (or "tip-dating") approaches that allow for the incorporation of fossils as tips in the analysis, with their phylogenetic and temporal relationships to the extant taxa inferred from the data and 2) the fossilized birth-death (FBD) class of tree models that capture the processes that produce the tree (speciation, extinction, and fossilization) and thus provide a coherent and biologically interpretable tree prior. To explore the behavior of these methods, we apply them to marattialean ferns, a group that was dominant in Carboniferous landscapes prior to declining to its modest extant diversity of slightly over 100 species. We show that tree models have a dramatic influence on estimates of both divergence times and topological relationships. This influence is driven by the strong, counter-intuitive informativeness of the uniform tree prior, and the inherent nonidentifiability of divergence-time models. In contrast to the strong influence of the tree models, we find minor effects of differing the morphological transition model or the morphological clock model. We compare the performance of a large pool of candidate models using a combination of posterior-predictive simulation and Bayes factors. Notably, an FBD model with epoch-specific speciation and extinction rates was strongly favored by Bayes factors. Our best-fitting model infers stem and crown divergences for the Marattiales in the mid-Devonian and Late Cretaceous, respectively, with elevated speciation rates in the Mississippian and elevated extinction rates in the Cisuralian leading to a peak diversity of ∼2800 species at the end of the Carboniferous, representing the heyday of the Psaroniaceae. This peak is followed by the rapid decline and ultimate extinction of the Psaroniaceae, with their descendants, the Marattiaceae, persisting at approximately stable levels of diversity until the present. This general diversification pattern appears to be insensitive to potential biases in the fossil record; despite the preponderance of available fossils being from Pennsylvanian coal balls, incorporating fossilization-rate variation does not improve model fit. In addition, by incorporating temporal data directly within the model and allowing for the inference of the phylogenetic position of the fossils, our study makes the surprising inference that the clade of extant Marattiales is relatively young, younger than any of the fossils historically thought to be congeneric with extant species. This result is a dramatic demonstration of the dangers of node-based approaches to divergence-time estimation, where the assignment of fossils to particular clades is made a priori (earlier node-based studies that constrained the minimum ages of extant genera based on these fossils resulted in much older age estimates than in our study) and of the utility of explicit models of morphological evolution and lineage diversification. [Bayesian model comparison; Carboniferous; divergence-time estimation; fossil record; fossilized birth–death; lineage diversification; Marattiales; models of morphological evolution; Psaronius; RevBayes.] 

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3. Inaccurate fossil placement does not compromise tip‐dated divergence times

   https://doi.org/10.1111/pala.12680  

   Mongiardino Koch, Nicolás; Garwood, Russell J.; Parry, Luke A. (November 2023, Palaeontology)

   Abstract Time‐scaled phylogenies underpin the interrogation of evolutionary processes across deep timescales, as well as attempts to link these to Earth's history. By inferring the placement of fossils and using their ages as temporal constraints, tip dating under the fossilized birth–death (FBD) process provides a coherent prior on divergence times. At the same time, it also links topological and temporal accuracy, as incorrectly placed fossil terminals should misinform divergence times. This could pose serious issues for obtaining accurate node ages, yet the interaction between topological and temporal error has not been thoroughly explored. We simulate phylogenies and associated morphological datasets using methodologies that incorporate evolution under selection, and are benchmarked against empirical datasets. We find that datasets of 300 characters and realistic levels of missing data generally succeed in inferring the correct placement of fossils on a constrained extant backbone topology, and that true node ages are usually contained within Bayesian posterior distributions. While increased fossil sampling improves the accuracy of inferred ages, topological and temporal errors do not seem to be linked: analyses in which fossils resolve less accurately do not exhibit elevated errors in node age estimates. At the same time, inferred divergence times are biased, probably due to a mismatch between the FBD prior and the shape of our simulated trees. While these results are encouraging, suggesting that even fossils with uncertain affinities can provide useful temporal information, they also emphasize that palaeontological information cannot overturn discrepancies between model priors and the true diversification history. 

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4. Data-driven speciation tree prior for better species divergence times in calibration-poor molecular phylogenies

   https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btab307  

   Tao, Qiqing; Barba-Montoya, Jose; Kumar, Sudhir (July 2021, Bioinformatics)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Motivation Precise time calibrations needed to estimate ages of species divergence are not always available due to fossil records' incompleteness. Consequently, clock calibrations available for Bayesian dating analyses can be few and diffused, i.e. phylogenies are calibration-poor, impeding reliable inference of the timetree of life. We examined the role of speciation birth–death (BD) tree prior on Bayesian node age estimates in calibration-poor phylogenies and tested the usefulness of an informative, data-driven tree prior to enhancing the accuracy and precision of estimated times. Results We present a simple method to estimate parameters of the BD tree prior from the molecular phylogeny for use in Bayesian dating analyses. The use of a data-driven birth–death (ddBD) tree prior leads to improvement in Bayesian node age estimates for calibration-poor phylogenies. We show that the ddBD tree prior, along with only a few well-constrained calibrations, can produce excellent node ages and credibility intervals, whereas the use of an uninformative, uniform (flat) tree prior may require more calibrations. Relaxed clock dating with ddBD tree prior also produced better results than a flat tree prior when using diffused node calibrations. We also suggest using ddBD tree priors to improve the detection of outliers and influential calibrations in cross-validation analyses. These results have practical applications because the ddBD tree prior reduces the number of well-constrained calibrations necessary to obtain reliable node age estimates. This would help address key impediments in building the grand timetree of life, revealing the process of speciation and elucidating the dynamics of biological diversification. Availability and implementation An R module for computing the ddBD tree prior, simulated datasets and empirical datasets are available at https://github.com/cathyqqtao/ddBD-tree-prior. 

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5. Compositional heterogeneity and outgroup choice influence the internal phylogeny of the ants

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ympev.2019.01.024  

   Borowiec, Marek L.; Rabeling, Christian; Brady, Séan G.; Fisher, Brian L.; Schultz, Ted R.; Ward, Philip S. (January 2019, Molecular phylogenetics and evolution)

   Knowledge of the internal phylogeny and evolutionary history of ants (Formicidae), the world’s most speciesrich clade of eusocial organisms, has dramatically improved since the advent of molecular phylogenetics. A number of relationships at the subfamily level, however, remain uncertain. Key unresolved issues include placement of the root of the ant tree of life and the relationships among the so-called poneroid subfamilies. Here we assemble a new data set to attempt a resolution of these two problems and carry out divergence dating, focusing on the age of the root node of crown Formicidae. For the phylogenetic analyses we included data from 110 ant species, including the key species Martialis heureka. We focused taxon sampling on non-formicoid lineages of ants to gain insight about deep nodes in the ant phylogeny. For divergence dating we retained a subset of 62 extant taxa and 42 fossils in order to approximate diversified sampling in the context of the fossilized birth-death process. We sequenced 11 nuclear gene fragments for a total of ∼7.5 kb and investigated the DNA sequence data for the presence of among-taxon compositional heterogeneity, a property known to mislead phylogenetic inference, and for its potential to affect the rooting of the ant phylogeny. We found sequences of the Leptanillinae and several outgroup taxa to be rich in adenine and thymine (51% average AT content) compared to the remaining ants (45% average). To investigate whether this heterogeneity could bias phylogenetic inference we performed outgroup removal experiments, analysis of compositionally homogeneous sites, and a simulation study. We found that compositional heterogeneity indeed appears to affect the placement of the root of the ant tree but has limited impact on more recent nodes. Our findings have implications for outgroup choice in phylogenetics, which should be made not only on the basis of close relationship to the ingroup, but should also take into account sequence divergence and other properties relative to the ingroup. We put forward a hypothesis regarding the rooting of the ant phylogeny, in which Martialis and the Leptanillinae together constitute a clade that is sister to all other ants. After correcting for compositional heterogeneity this emerges as the best-supported hypothesis of relationships at deep nodes in the ant tree. The results of our divergence dating under the fossilized birth-death process and diversified sampling suggest that the crown Formicidae originated during the Albian or Aptian ages of the Lower Cretaceous (103–124 Ma). In addition, we found support for monophyletic poneroids comprising the subfamilies Agroecomyrmecinae, Amblyoponinae, Apomyrminae, Paraponerinae, Ponerinae, and Proceratiinae, and well-supported relationships among these subfamilies except for the placement of Proceratiinae and (Amblyoponinae+Apomyrminae). Our phylogeny also highlights the non-monophyly of several ant genera, including Protanilla and Leptanilla in the Leptanillinae, Proceratium in the Proceratiinae, and Cryptopone, Euponera, and Mesoponera within the Ponerinae. 

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