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Abstract Increased wildfire activity has raised concerns among communities about how to assess and prepare for this threat. There is a need for wildfire hazard assessment approaches that capture local variability to inform decisions, produce results understood by the public, and are updatable in a timely manner. We modified an existing approach to assess decadal wildfire hazards based primarily on ember dispersal and wildfire proximity, referencing landscape changes from 1984 through 2014. Our modifications created a categorical flammability hazard scheme, rather than dichotomous, and integrated wildfire exposure results across spatial scales. We used remote sensed land cover from four historical decadal points to create flammability hazard and wildfire exposure maps for three arctic communities (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon). Within the Fairbanks study area, we compared 2014 flammability hazard, wildfire exposure, and FlamMap burn probabilities among burned (2014–2023) and unburned areas. Unlike burn probabilities, there were significantly higher in exposure values among burned and unburned locations (Wilcoxon;p < 0.001) and exposure rose as flammability hazard classes increased (Kruskal–Wallis;p < 0.001). Very high flammability hazard class supported 75% of burned areas and burns tended to occur in areas with 60% exposure or greater. Areas with high exposure values are more prone to burn and thus desirable for mitigation actions. By working with wildfire practitioners and communities, we created a tool that rapidly assesses wildfire hazards and is easily modified to help identify and prioritize mitigation activities.
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Wildfire Risk: Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon 2024
While wildfires can be beneficial and part of a natural process, there have been numerous instances around the world, particularly in recent years, where wildfires have had devastating consequences for society. Weather conditions have created extreme wildfire behavior, resulting in speeds and intensities that can overpower suppression resources. It is ever more critical that communities and agencies take actions to mitigate and prevent wildfire disasters. We have developed a tool that enables wildfire practitioners to assess the risk of wildfire to structures in a straightforward, rapid, and affordable manner. The approach leverages information often collected by communities (e.g., building footprints, zoning) and available vegetation datasets. In conjunction with local wildfire management regulations, our project also used wildfire exposure to help identify wildland-urban interface boundaries. We used this approach on three communities in the Arctic (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska, and Whitehorse, Yukon) to assess wildfire risk. We determined that there is considerable wildfire risk in urban Arctic communities, with a greater percentage of structures at high or very high risk in Fairbanks (26 percent (%)) and Whitehorse (22%) compared to Anchorage (14%). Combining local wildfire management practices with wildfire exposure is a successful way to identify meaningful Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) boundaries, which are essential for obtaining mitigation funds and planning. The key to producing updatable wildfire risk and vulnerability maps is accurate, up-to-date information on vegetation, building footprints, and zoning. With this information and the tool outlined here, communities and agencies have a way to inform community wildfire protection plans and identify impactful mitigation actions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1927563
- PAR ID:
- 10671070
- Publisher / Repository:
- NSF Arctic Data Center
- Date Published:
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Alaska Yukon Wildfire Risk Management Anchorage Fairbanks Whitehorse
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Other: text/xml
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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We modified an existing approach to assess decadal wildfire hazards based primarily on ember dispersal and wildfire proximity, referencing landscape changes from 1984 through 2014. Our modifications created a categorial flammability hazard scheme, rather than dichotomous, and the integration of wildfire exposure results across spatial scales. We used remote sensed land cover from four decadal points to create flammability hazard and wildfire exposure maps for three arctic communities (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon). Within the Fairbanks study area, we compared 2014 flammability hazard, wildfire exposure, and FlamMap burn probabilities among burned (2014-2021) and unburned areas. Exposure values were greater in burned than unburned, unlike burn probabilities.more » « less
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We modified an existing approach to assess decadal wildfire hazards based primarily on ember dispersal and wildfire proximity, referencing landscape changes from 1984 through 2014. Our modifications created a categorial flammability hazard scheme, rather than dichotomous, and the integration of wildfire exposure results across spatial scales. We used remote sensed land cover from four decadal points to create flammability hazard and wildfire exposure maps for three arctic communities (Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon). Within the Fairbanks study area, we compared 2014 flammability hazard, wildfire exposure, and FlamMap burn probabilities among burned (2014-2021) and unburned areas. Exposure values were greater in burned than unburned, unlike burn probabilities. These datasets reflect the hazardous fuels or flammability hazard layers used in the process.more » « less
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