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Streamflow forecasting in snowmelt-dominated basins is essential for water resource planning, flood mitigation, and ecological sustainability. This study presents a comparative evaluation of statistical, machine learning (Random Forest), and deep learning models (Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network (STGNN)) using 30 years of data from 20 monitoring stations across the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We assess the impact of integrating meteorological variables—particularly, the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)—and spatial dependencies on predictive performance. Among all models, the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network (STGNN) achieved the highest accuracy, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.84 and Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.84 in the multivariate setting at the critical downstream node, Lees Ferry. Compared to the univariate setup, SWE-enhanced predictions reduced Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 12.8%. Seasonal and spatial analyses showed the greatest improvements at high-elevation and mid-network stations, where snowmelt dynamics dominate runoff. These findings demonstrate that spatio-temporal learning frameworks, especially STGNNs, provide a scalable and physically consistent approach to streamflow forecasting under variable climatic conditions.
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Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Streamflow Prediction in the Upper Colorado Basin
Streamflow prediction is vital for effective water resource management, enabling a better understanding of hydrological variability and its response to environmental factors. This study presents a spatio-temporal graph neural network (STGNN) model for streamflow prediction in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), integrating graph convolutional networks (GCNs) to model spatial connectivity and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to capture temporal dynamics. Using 30 years of monthly streamflow data from 20 monitoring stations, the STGNN predicted streamflow over a 36-month horizon and was evaluated against traditional models, including random forest regression (RFR), LSTM, gated recurrent units (GRU), and seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). The STGNN outperformed these models across multiple metrics, achieving an R2 of 0.78, an RMSE of 0.81 mm/month, and a KGE of 0.79 at critical locations like Lees Ferry. A sequential analysis of input–output configurations identified the (36, 36) setup as optimal for balancing historical context and forecasting accuracy. Additionally, the STGNN showed strong generalizability when applied to other locations within the UCRB. These results underscore the importance of integrating spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics in hydrological forecasting, offering a scalable and adaptable framework to improve predictive accuracy and support adaptive water resource management in river basins.
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- PAR ID:
- 10673922
- Publisher / Repository:
- MDPI
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Hydrology
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2306-5338
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 60
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12030060
