This content will become publicly available on February 1, 2027

Title: Cold Pools Reduce the Impacts of Deforestation on Convection Initiation
ABSTRACT The individual and synergistic impacts of cold pools and land surface heterogeneity on convection initiation are investigated. Idealized large eddy simulations of deep convection over the Amazon rainforest are conducted. Simulations test realistic and homogenized vegetation, along with realistic and suppressed low‐level evaporation which eliminates cold pools. Updrafts are tracked to determine convection initiation locations. The aggregation of initiation locations is quantified with an organization index. Initiation locations are randomly distributed over homogeneous vegetation, with or without cold pools, demonstrating that cold pools have minimal impacts on initiation locations over homogeneous vegetation. With realistic vegetation, convection initiation is more frequent over forested than deforested areas due to favorable thermodynamics. Heterogeneous vegetation effectively aggregates initiation locations and precipitation compared to homogeneous vegetation, whereas cold pools disaggregate initiation locations and precipitation by propagating into deforested regions and initiating convection. Thus, cold pools partially counteract the effects of anthropogenically driven land surface heterogeneity.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2029611
PAR ID:
10679621
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Science Letters
Volume:
27
Issue:
2
ISSN:
1530-261X
Page Range / eLocation ID:
e70011
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Heterogeneous landscapes can influence the development of convection through the generation of thermally driven mesoscale circulations. To assess the impacts of these circulations and their interaction with sea breezes, we simulated convection in an idealized coastal environment using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). We compared simulations with striped patterns of surface vegetation to those of uniform vegetation to identify the importance of vegetation heterogeneity in impacting convective development. Under dry soil conditions representative of those during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) campaigns in June 2022, we found that these vegetation-induced circulations, referred to in the literature as “forest breezes,” are more important than the sea breeze in determining the location of convection initiation. Convection and precipitation are also found to be favored over forests and suppressed over pasture and suburban landscapes as a result of greater surface sensible heat flux over the forest. Our findings also indicate that forest breezes are important for initiating convection along the boundaries of the forest, but that cold pools may play a key role in propagating the forest breezes toward the center of the forest stripe. In our simulations, the collisions of these breezes in the center of the forest stripe lead to uplift and strong convection there; however, a different width of the forest stripe would alter when the forest breezes collide or whether they collide at all. The presence of these cold pools may therefore impact the “ideal stripe width,” the width of each vegetation stripe which maximizes domain-wide precipitation. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract. This study examines the diurnal variation in precipitation over Hainan Island in the South China Sea using gauge observations from 1951 to 2012 and Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH) satellite estimates from 2006 to 2015, as well as numerical simulations. The simulations are the first to use climatological mean initial and lateral boundary conditions to study the dynamic and thermodynamic processes (and the impacts of land–sea breeze circulations) that control the rainfall distribution and climatology. Precipitation is most significant from April to October and exhibits a strong diurnal cycle resulting from land–sea breeze circulations. More than 60% of the total annual precipitation over the island is attributable to the diurnal cycle with a significant monthly variability. The CMORPH and gauge datasets agree well, except that the CMORPH data underestimate precipitation and have a 1 h peak delay. The diurnal cycle of the rainfall and the related land– sea breeze circulations during May and June were well captured by convection-permitting numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which were initiated from a 10-year average ERA-Interim reanalysis. The simulations have a slight overestimation of rainfall amounts and a 1 h delay in peak rainfall time. The diurnal cycle of precipitation is driven by the occurrence of moist convection around noontime owing to low-level convergence associated with the sea-breeze circulations. The precipitation intensifies rapidly thereafter and peaks in the afternoon with the collisions of sea-breeze fronts from different sides of the island. Cold pools of the convective storms contribute to the inland propagation of the sea breeze. Generally, precipitation dissipates quickly in the evening due to the cooling and stabilization of the lower troposphere and decrease of boundary layer moisture. Interestingly, the rather high island orography is not a dominant factor in the diurnal variation in precipitation over the island. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract. This study examines the diurnal variation in precipitation over Hainan Island in the South China Sea using gauge observations from 1951 to 2012 and Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH) satellite estimates from 2006 to 2015, as well as numerical simulations. The simulations are the first to use climatological mean initial and lateral boundary conditions to study the dynamic and thermodynamic processes (and the impacts of land–sea breeze circulations) that control the rainfall distribution and climatology. Precipitation is most significant from April to October and exhibits a strong diurnal cycle resulting from land–sea breeze circulations. More than 60% of the total annual precipitation over the island is attributable to the diurnal cycle with a significant monthly variability. The CMORPH and gauge datasets agree well, except that the CMORPH data underestimate precipitation and have a 1h peak delay. The diurnal cycle of the rainfall and the related land–sea breeze circulations during May and June were well captured by convection-permitting numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which were initiated from a 10-year average ERA-Interim reanalysis. The simulations have a slight overestimation of rainfall amounts and a 1h delay in peak rainfall time. The diurnal cycle of precipitation is driven by the occurrence of moist convection around noontime owing to low-level convergence associated with the sea-breeze circulations. The precipitation intensifies rapidly thereafter and peaks in the afternoon with the collisions of sea-breeze fronts from different sides of the island. Cold pools of the convective storms contribute to the inland propagation of the sea breeze. Generally, precipitation dissipates quickly in the evening due to the cooling and stabilization of the lower troposphere and decrease of boundary layer moisture. Interestingly, the rather high island orography is not a dominant factor in the diurnal variation in precipitation over the island. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract It is not uncommon for layers within the warm conveyor belt in a frontal system to become potentially unstable, releasing elevated convection. The present study examines this destabilization process over complex terrain, and resulting precipitation, with a focus on the surface coupling, orographic ascent, and the initiation and evolution of convective cells. This study uses detailed observations combined with numerical modeling of a baroclinic system passing over the Idaho Central Mountains in the United States on 7 February 2017. The data were collected as part of the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime clouds: the Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE). Specifically, observations from a ground-based scanning X-band radar and an airborne profiling Doppler W-band radar along ~100 km long flight tracks aligned with the wind describe the development and evolution of convective cells above shallow stratiform orographic clouds. Convection-permitting numerical simulations of this event, with an inner domain grid resolution of 0.9 km, capture the emergence and vertical structure of the convective cells. Therefore, they are used to describe the advection of warm, moist air over a retreating warm front, cold air pooling within the Snake River Basin and adjacent valleys, destabilization in a moist layer above this shallow stable layer, and instability release in orographic gravity wave updrafts. In this case, the convective cells topped out near 6 km ASL, and the resulting precipitation fell mostly leeward of the ridge where convection was triggered, on account of strong cross-barrier flow. Sequential convection initiation over terrain ridges and rapid downwind transport led to banded precipitation structures. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Convective cold pools (CPs) are inherent to mesoscale convective systems and have been identified in tropical cyclone (TC) eyewalls and rainbands. However, their distribution within TCs and their impacts on the TC enthalpy balance are not well understood. This gap is due to the scarcity of high-frequency observations over the ocean. By comparing 1-min data from Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles to 10-min ocean moored buoy data, we demonstrate that the latter can detect CPs effectively. The analysis of the combined mooring-Saildrone dataset, associated with 241 TCs in the North Atlantic over the period 1998–2023, reveals that the frequencies of occurrence of CPs in the motion-right and shear-left quadrants are 50% and 30% higher than in the motion-left and shear-right quadrants, respectively. This indicates that there is enhanced convection in the motion-right and shear-left quadrants, and TC motion is more important than vertical wind shear in organizing CPs. Although, on average, CPs occur only about 6% of the time in TCs, their contribution to tropospheric latent heat release from their uplifting effect could be comparable to the total surface enthalpy flux in TCs under non-CP conditions. In addition, we found that CP gust fronts can boost surface sensible and latent heat fluxes by 65% and 11%, respectively, which can help low-enthalpy downdraft boundary air recover more quickly, increasing the readiness of the boundary layer for new convection under TC conditions. These findings suggest that properly resolving CP dynamics in TC models could improve the accuracy of TC intensity forecasts. Significance StatementConvective cold pools are bursts of cool, dry air near the surface, often originating from thunderstorms. As they travel, they uplift surface moist air to higher altitudes, which helps form new thunderstorms. As thunderstorms are an integral part of tropical cyclones, the purpose of this study is to investigate the distribution of cold pools inside tropical cyclones and how much they impact tropical cyclone energy. We found that cold pools are more common on the right side of tropical cyclone paths, suggesting stronger thunderstorms in that part of the storm. Despite a low frequency of occurrence of 6%, the amount of energy contributed by cold pools’ uplifting effect in a hurricane can match the total energy released by that hurricane. 
    more » « less