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1. Sea level rise and the drivers of daily water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-49204-z  

   Baranes, H; Dykstra, S L; Jay, D A; Talke, S A (December 2023, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Water levels in deltas and estuaries vary on multiple timescales due to coastal, hydrologic, meteorologic, geologic, and anthropogenic factors. These diverse factors increase the uncertainty of, and may bias, relative sea level rise (RSLR) estimates. Here, we evaluate RSLR in San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, USA by applying a physics-based, nonlinear regression to 50 tide gauges that determines the spatially varying controls on daily mean water level for water years 2004–2022. Results show that elevated river flow and pumping (99th percentile) raise water level up to 6 m and lower it up to 0.35 m, respectively, and coastal water level variations are attenuated by 30-60% within the Delta. Strong westerly winds raise water level up to 0.17 m, and tidal-fluvial interaction during spring tides and low discharge raises water level up to 0.15 m. Removal of these interfering factors greatly improves RSLR estimates, narrowing 95% confidence intervals by 89–99% and removing bias due to recent drought. Results show that RSLR is spatially heterogeneous, with rates ranging from − 2.8 to 12.9 mm y^-1(95% uncertainties < 1 mm y^-1). RSLR also exceeds coastal SLR of 3.3 mm y^-1in San Francisco at 85% of stations. Thus, RSLR in the Delta is strongly influenced by local vertical land motion and will likely produce significantly different, location-dependent future flood risk trajectories. 

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2. Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06448-z  

   Saintilan, Neil; Horton, Benjamin; Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Ashe, Erica L.; Khan, Nicole S.; Schuerch, Mark; Perry, Chris; Kopp, Robert E.; Garner, Gregory G.; Murray, Nicholas; et al (September 2023, Nature)

   Abstract Several coastal ecosystems—most notably mangroves and tidal marshes—exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment 1 . The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs 2 . The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested 3 . Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr −1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr −1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr −1 , the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr −1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world’s mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr −1 . Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems. 

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3. Sea-level driven acceleration in coastal forest retreat

   https://doi.org/10.1130/G46607.1  

   Schieder, Nathalie W.; Kirwan, Matthew L. (October 2019, Geology)

   Abstract Ghost forests, consisting of dead trees adjacent to marshes, are a striking feature of low-lying coastal and estuarine landscapes, and they represent the migration of coastal ecosystems with relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Although ghost forests have been observed along many coastal margins, rates of ecosystem change and their dependence on RSLR remain poorly constrained. Here, we reconstructed forest retreat rates using sediment coring and historical imagery at five sites along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States, a hotspot for accelerated RSLR. We found that the elevation of the marsh-forest boundary generally increased with RSLR over the past 2000 yr, and that retreat accelerated concurrently with the late 19th century acceleration in global sea level. Lateral retreat rates increased through time for most sampling intervals over the past 150 yr, and modern lateral retreat rates are 2 to 14 times faster than pre-industrial rates at all sites. Substantial deviations between RSLR and forest response are consistent with previous observations that episodic disturbance facilitates the mortality of adult trees. Nevertheless, our work suggests that RSLR is the primary determinant of coastal forest extent, and that ghost forests represent a direct and prominent visual indicator of climate change. 

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4. Integrated uplift, subsidence, erosion and deposition in a tightly coupled source‐to‐sink system, Pagliara basin, northeastern Sicily, Italy

   https://doi.org/10.1111/bre.12845  

   Pavano, F.; Pazzaglia, F. J.; Rittenour, T. M.; Catalano, S.; Corbett, L. B.; Bierman, P. (January 2024, Basin Research)

   Abstract How tectonic forcing, expressed as base level change, is encoded in the stratigraphic and geomorphic records of coupled source‐to‐sink systems remains uncertain. Using sedimentological, geochronological and geomorphic approaches, we describe the relationship between transient topographic change and sediment deposition for a low‐storage system forced by rapid rock uplift. We present five new luminescence ages and two terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide paleo‐erosion rates for the late Pleistocene Pagliara fan‐delta complex and we model corresponding base level fall history and erosion of the source catchment located on the Ionian flank of the Peloritani Mountains (NE‐Sicily, Italy). The Pagliara delta complex is part of the broader Messina Gravel‐and‐Sands lithostratigraphic unit that outcrops along the Peloritani coastal belt as extensional basins have been recently inverted by both normal faults and regional uplift at the Messina Straits. The deltas exposed at the mouth of the Pagliara River have constructional tops at ca. 300 m a.s.l. and onlap steeply east‐dipping bedrock at the coast to thickness between ca. 100 and 200 m. Five infrared‐stimulated luminescence (IRSL) ages collected from the delta range in age from ca. 327 to 208 ka and indicate a vertical long‐term sediment accumulation rate as rapid as ca. 2.2 cm/yr during MIS 7. Two cosmogenic¹⁰Be concentrations measured in samples of delta sediment indicate paleo‐erosion rates during MIS 8–7 near or slightly higher than the modern rates of ca. 1 mm/yr. Linear inversion of Pagliara fluvial topography indicates an unsteady base level fall history in phase with eustasy that is superimposed on a longer, tectonically driven trend that doubled in rate from ca. 0.95 to 1.8 mm/yr in the past 150 ky. The combination of footwall uplift rate and eustasy determines the accommodation space history to trap the fan‐deltas at the Peloritani coast in hanging wall basins, which are now inverted, uplifted and exposed hundreds of metres above the sea level. 

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5. Centennial Changes of Salt Marsh Area in Coastal Georgia (USA) Related to Large-Scale Sediment Dynamics by River, Waves, and Tides

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-024-01383-2  

   Mariotti, G; Ceccherini, G; Alexander, C R; Spivak, A C (September 2024, Estuaries and Coasts)

   Abstract Marsh lateral expansion and retreat are often attributed to sediment availability, but a causal link is difficult to establish. To shed light on this problem, we analyzed changes in salt marsh area along the ~ 200-km-long Georgia coast (USA) from the 1850s to 2010s in relation to total suspended sediment (TSS) and to proxies for river sediment input and local sediment resuspension. Marsh area is characterized by large gains and losses (up to 200 m²/m/yr), but relatively small net change (-50 to 50 m²/m/yr or -0.1 to 0.1%/yr). This has resulted in a general loss of marsh area, except close to the mouths of major rivers, where there is net gain. Net expansion rates decreased in the Savannah Estuary but increased in the Altamaha Estuary from the 1850s–1930s period to the 1930s–2010s period, which are consistent with observed decreases and likely increases in sediment discharge in the two estuaries, respectively. To explain the spatial patterns in the 1930s–2010s marsh area change, we estimated TSS from satellite measurements (2003 to 2020). Along the northern part of the Georgia coast, net marsh gain is positively correlated to the average TSS within the estuarine region. However, this correlation breaks down in more southern areas (Cumberland Sound). Coast-wide, there is a better correlation between TSS associated with new input from the rivers, estimated as the TSS difference between high-discharge (Jan–Mar) and low-discharge (Sept–Nov) months. To identify the effect of wave resuspension in the nearshore, we consider the TSS difference between high-wave, low-discharge (Sept–Nov) and low-wave, low-discharge periods (Jun–Aug). Wave resuspension is relatively uniform along the coast and does not explain spatial patterns of marsh area change. Sediment input from the nearshore is likely contributing to the estuarine sediment budget in Georgia, but it is not sufficient to prevent marsh lateral retreat. To identify the role of tidal resuspension and advection, we consider differences in TSS between low and high tide. This differential is relatively constant along most of the coast, but it is much lower in the southern part of the coast, suggesting a lower tidal action in this region. Sediment resuspended by tides is likely originating from internal recycling (i.e., erosion) within the estuary, and thus does not contribute to marsh lateral expansion. The proposed approach to partition TSS is a general demonstration and could be applied to other coastal regions. 

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