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1. Evacuate or social distance? Modeling the influence of threat perceptions on hurricane evacuation in a dual‐threat environment

   https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14202  

   Wu, Hao‐Che; Murphy, Haley; Greer, Alex; Clay, Lauren (August 2023, Risk Analysis)

   Cox, L. Anthony (Ed.)

   This study investigates how different risk predictors influenced households’ evacuation decisions during a dual‐threat event (Hurricane Laura and COVID‐19 pandemic). The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) literature indicates that perceived threat variables are the most influential variables that drive evacuation decisions. This study applies the PADM to investigate a dual‐threat disaster that has conflicting protective action recommendations. Given the novelty, scale, span, impact, and messaging around COVID‐19, it is crucial to see how hurricanes along the Gulf Coast—a hazard addressed seasonally by residents with mostly consistent protective action messaging—produce different reactions in residents in this pandemic context. Household survey data were collected during early 2021 using a disproportionate stratified sampling procedure to include households located in mandatory and voluntary evacuation areas across the coastal counties in Texas and parishes in Louisiana that were affected by Hurricane Laura. Structural equation modeling was used to identify the relationships between perceived threats and evacuation decisions. The findings suggest affective risk perceptions strongly affected cognitive risk perceptions (CRPs). Notably, hurricane and COVID‐19 CRPs are significant predictors of hurricane evacuation decisions in different ways. Hurricane CRPs encourage evacuation, but COVID‐19 CRPs hinder evacuation decisions. 

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2. Frozen while I scan: Examining the impact of media dependencies, socioeconomic status and rumination on preparation behaviours related to Hurricane Dorian

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12362  

   Lachlan, Kenneth A.; Gilbert, Christine; Spence, Patric R.; Hutter, Emily (May 2021, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management)

   null (Ed.)

   Building on previous crisis and risk literature, this study investigates media dependencies, information seeking, preparation behaviors and rumination tendencies among individuals living on the Atlantic seaboard who were impacted by Hurricane Dorian in 2019. Consistent with previous work, participants continue to perceive television, a legacy media, as the most important source of information—both initially and throughout the event. This study also analyzed the extent to which information seeking, preparation behaviors and rumination tendencies may be related, drawing from recent work that has suggested that rumination tendencies may help explain sex differences in information seeking. Results suggested that those with higher rumination tendencies were more likely to perceive all sources of information as very important, with the exception of television, which was heavily relied upon by most participants. Rumination tendencies did not explain the variance in any of the three preparation behaviors examined. Overall, most participants had an emergency kit and an evacuation plan in place, while socioeconomic status positively predicted home preparation. 

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3. A Predictive Analytics Approach for Nursing Home Hurricane Evacuation

   Sakib, Nazmus; Hyer, Kathryn; Dobbs, Debra; Peterson, Lindsay; Jester, Dylan J.; Kong, N (July 2019, Proceedings of the 2019 IISE Annual Conference)

   Whether to evacuate a nursing home (NH) or shelter in place in response to the approaching hurricane is one of the most complex and difficult decisions encountered by nursing home administrators. A variety of factors may affect the evacuation decision, including storm and environmental conditions, nursing home characteristics, and the dwelling residents’ health conditions. Successful prediction of evacuation decision is essential to proactively prepare and manage resources to meet the surge in nursing home evacuation demands. In current nursing home emergency preparedness literature, there is a lack of analytical models and studies for nursing home evacuation demand prediction. In this paper, we propose a predictive analytics framework by applying machine learning techniques, integrated with domain knowledge in NH evacuation research, to extract, identify and quantify the effects of relevant factors on NH evacuation from heterogeneous data sources. In particular, storm features are extracted from Geographic Information System (GIS) data to strengthen the prediction accuracy. To further illustrate the proposed work and demonstrate its practical validity, a real-world case study is given to investigate nursing home evacuation in response to recent Hurricane Irma in Florida. The prediction performance among different predictive models are also compared comprehensively. 

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4. Examining the Links Between Information Sufficiency, News Preferences, and Protective Behavior During Hurricane Ian

   https://doi.org/10.1080/10510974.2023.2285968  

   Lachlan, Kenneth A.; DiCairano, James; Gilbert, Christine (November 2023, Communication Studies)

   Natural disasters such as floods and hurricanes are global occurrences affecting countries, counties, and communities. These extreme weather events can cause feelings of uncertainty and produce a range of high consequence outcomes. As a result, individuals can be expected to seek out information to further understand how they will be impacted. With Hurricane Ian as the focus, this study examined the impact of source preferences on protective behaviors, while eval- uating their relationship with information sufficiency. Florida residents living in counties impacted by Hurricane Ian completed an online survey in the weeks following landfall. Source preference assessed reliance on various news outlets and yielded three factors: high relia- bility, low reliability, and traditional media. While none predicted the likelihood of mitigation, overall reliance on all three correlated with likelihood of evacuation. Furthermore, residents who expressed infor- mation insufficiency spent more time seeking information and were more reliant on traditional media. The findings contribute to our understanding of news use and preferences before a natural disaster, along with their impact on likelihood of evacuation and mitigation. 

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5. Health Information Sourcing and Health Knowledge Quality: Repeated Cross-sectional Survey

   https://doi.org/10.2196/39274  

   Korshakova, Elena; Marsh, Jessecae K; Kleinberg, Samantha (January 2022, JMIR Formative Research)

   Background People’s health-related knowledge influences health outcomes, as this knowledge may influence whether individuals follow advice from their doctors or public health agencies. Yet, little attention has been paid to where people obtain health information and how these information sources relate to the quality of knowledge. Objective We aim to discover what information sources people use to learn about health conditions, how these sources relate to the quality of their health knowledge, and how both the number of information sources and health knowledge change over time. Methods We surveyed 200 different individuals at 12 time points from March through September 2020. At each time point, we elicited participants’ knowledge about causes, risk factors, and preventative interventions for 8 viral (Ebola, common cold, COVID-19, Zika) and nonviral (food allergies, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis [ALS], strep throat, stroke) illnesses. Participants were further asked how they learned about each illness and to rate how much they trust various sources of health information. Results We found that participants used different information sources to obtain health information about common illnesses (food allergies, strep throat, stroke) compared to emerging illnesses (Ebola, common cold, COVID-19, Zika). Participants relied mainly on news media, government agencies, and social media for information about emerging illnesses, while learning about common illnesses from family, friends, and medical professionals. Participants relied on social media for information about COVID-19, with their knowledge accuracy of COVID-19 declining over the course of the pandemic. The number of information sources participants used was positively correlated with health knowledge quality, though there was no relationship with the specific source types consulted. Conclusions Building on prior work on health information seeking and factors affecting health knowledge, we now find that people systematically consult different types of information sources by illness type and that the number of information sources people use affects the quality of individuals’ health knowledge. Interventions to disseminate health information may need to be targeted to where individuals are likely to seek out information, and these information sources differ systematically by illness type. 

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