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			<titleStmt><title level='a'>From the ashes of VEI: Decoding explosivity, mass eruption rate and hazards in real time</title></titleStmt>
			<publicationStmt>
				<publisher>AGU</publisher>
				<date>01/29/2026</date>
			</publicationStmt>
			<sourceDesc>
				<bibl> 
					<idno type="par_id">10684941</idno>
					<idno type="doi">10.22541/essoar.176967627.71453176/v1</idno>
					
					<author>Dork Sahagian</author>
				</bibl>
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			<abstract><ab><![CDATA[<p>Ash-producing volcanic eruptions are a major natural hazard. The explosivity of</p> <p>these eruptions has been described for decades by a semi-quantitative “Volcanic</p> <p>Explosivity Index (VEI)” based on a number of interdependent factors (eruption</p> <p>duration, volume of ejected material, eruptive column height, tropospheric and</p> <p>stratospheric injection, and many qualitative descriptors), most of which could only</p> <p>be assessed after eruption had ceased. The utility of this semi-quantitative index</p> <p>has been questioned since then, yet its common usage persists. We suggest that if</p> <p>VEI is to be used in the future, it may as well be an index that can be determined in</p> <p>real time during an eruption, and one that strictly reflects eruption intensity. We find</p> <p>that the same value for the “traditional” Volcanic Explosivity Index of past eruptions</p> <p>can be estimated in real time during an eruption, based solely on eruption column</p> <p>height. This approach is not intended to replace the traditional VEI scale or supplant</p> <p>more detailed mechanistic approaches to mass eruption rate (MER); rather it can be</p> <p>used to provide a more immediate way of calculating the VEI and linking to MER, in</p> <p>real time while an eruption is taking place. As such, if the easily observed height</p> <p>can be measured, both MER and VEI can be estimated. This may facilitate</p> <p>emergency response by aviation, hazard management, and others to mitigate</p> <p>societal impact of hazardous eruptions. This scheme can be inverted to use</p> <p>volume-based VEI of ancient eruptions to roughly retrodict unobserved column</p> <p>height for key historic and pre-historic eruptions. Further, ash particle morphology</p> <p>reflects explosivity in terms of decompression rate at the vent of unobserved</p> <p>eruptions. With sufficiently rapid decompression, this could result in an observable</p> <p>bi-modal bubble size distribution. The morphology of ash particles reveals a</p> <p>threshold between VEI 3 and 4, above which there is sufficiently rapid</p> <p>decompression to trigger a second nucleation event near the vent.</p>]]></ab></abstract>
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