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ABSTRACT We present Trinity, a flexible empirical model that self-consistently infers the statistical connection between dark matter haloes, galaxies, and supermassive black holes (SMBHs). Trinity is constrained by galaxy observables from 0 < z < 10 [galaxies’ stellar mass functions, specific and cosmic star formation rates (SFRs), quenched fractions, and UV luminosity functions] and SMBH observables from 0 < z < 6.5 (quasar luminosity functions, quasar probability distribution functions, active black hole mass functions, local SMBH mass–bulge mass relations, and the observed SMBH mass distributions of high-redshift bright quasars). The model includes full treatment of observational systematics [e.g. active galactic nucleus (AGN) obscuration and errors in stellar masses]. From these data, Trinity infers the average SMBH mass, SMBH accretion rate, merger rate, and Eddington ratio distribution as functions of halo mass, galaxy stellar mass, and redshift. Key findings include: (1) the normalization and the slope of the SMBH mass–bulge mass relation increases mildly from z = 0 to z = 10; (2) The best-fitting AGN radiative+kinetic efficiency is ∼0.05–0.06, but can be in the range ∼0.035–0.07 with alternative input assumptions; (3) AGNs show downsizing, i.e. the Eddington ratios of more massive SMBHs start to decrease earlier than those of lower mass objects; (4) The average ratio between average SMBH accretion rate and SFR is ∼10−3 for low-mass galaxies, which are primarily star-forming. This ratio increases to ∼10−1 for the most massive haloes below z ∼ 1, where star formation is quenched but SMBHs continue to accrete.
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This content will become publicly available on December 17, 2026
The Drivers of the Decline in Supermassive Black Hole Growth at z < 2
Abstract It is well established that cosmic supermassive black hole (SMBH) growth peaks atz ≈ 1.5–2, followed by a strong decline of ≈1–1.5 dex toward the present day, with the comoving number density of higher-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGNs) peaking at higher redshift (referred to as “AGN downsizing”). We leverage the best current measurements of the SMBH accretion distribution, based upon data from nine well-characterized extragalactic fields with a “wedding-cake” design, to investigate and quantify the drivers of the drastic decline in cosmic SMBH growth. The decline in the typical Eddington ratio (λEdd) of AGNs (decreasing by ≈1.35 dex fromz ≈ 1.5–2 toz ≈ 0.2) is the dominant driver for the broad decline in SMBH growth, rather than a shift of accretion activity to less-massive SMBHs. AsλEdddecreases toward lower redshift, the primary contributor to the cosmic SMBH accretion density (ρBHAR) has shifted from high-λEddAGNs to low-λEddAGNs, even though the latter always dominate the comoving AGN number density atz < 4. We also find that the decline in SMBH growth toward lower SMBH mass in less-massive galaxies is primarily due to the decreasing outburst luminosity rather than the duty cycle.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2407089
- PAR ID:
- 10688970
- Publisher / Repository:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 995
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 205
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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