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Abstract To demonstrate how a mega city can lead in decarbonizing beyond legal mandates, the city of Los Angeles (LA) developed science-based, feasible pathways towards utilizing 100% renewable energy for its municipally-owned electric utility. Aside from decarbonization, renewable energy adoption can lead to co-benefits such as improving urban air quality from reductions in combustion-related emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx), primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and others. Herein, we quantify changes to air pollutant concentrations and public health from scenarios of 100% renewable electricity adoption in LA in 2045, alongside aggressive electrification of end-use sectors. Our analysis suggests that while ensuring reliable electricity supply, reductions in emissions of air pollutants associated with the 100% renewable electricity scenarios can lead to 8% citywide reductions of PM2.5concentration while increasing ozone concentration by 5% relative to a 2012 baseline year, given identical meteorology conditions. The combination of these concentration changes could result in net monetized public health benefits (driven by avoided deaths) of up to $1.4 billion in year 2045 in LA, results potentially replicable for other city-scale decarbonization scenarios.
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This content will become publicly available on November 7, 2026
Watts-to-wheel comparison of the air quality, health, and equity impacts of light- v. heavy-duty vehicle electrification in the U.S. Midwest
Abstract Electric vehicle adoption strategies have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. However, the effectiveness of this transition may depend on which vehicles are electrified, and where. To assess the efficacy of different modes of transportation electrification, we apply a watts-to-wheel analysis framework that accounts for upstream emission increases from battery charging and downstream reductions in tailpipe emissions. Using the WRF-CMAQ chemical transport model at ∼1 km2resolution, we compare the greenhouse gas, air quality, and public health impacts of electrifying 30% of light-duty vehicles (eLDVs) versus 30% of heavy-duty vehicles (eHDVs) across a U.S. Midwestern domain. Both electrification scenarios achieve net reductions in CO2emissions despite increased emissions from electricity generation units, with greater total reductions from eLDVs (∼7 Mt CO2/year, −4.5%) than eHDVs (∼1.6 Mt CO2/year, −1.1%). However, air quality benefits are greater in the eHDV scenario, where cumulative reductions in health-harming air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and elemental carbon (EC) exceed those in the eLDV scenario. Both scenarios show modest increases in daily 8 h average ozone (MDA8 O3), with disbenefits largest in the eHDV scenario. Estimated health benefits of the eHDV scenario exceed those of the eLDV scenario, with 70 (50) more avoided premature deaths annually from reduced NO2(EC), offset by 50 additional deaths from MDA8 O3increases. In both scenarios, the largest health benefits occur in communities with higher proportions of Black and Hispanic residents. However, long-standing relative exposure disparities persist. On a per-vehicle basis, we find that electrifying one HDV yields nearly 5× more CO2reduction-based economic benefits and 23× more NO2reduction-based economic health benefits than a single eLDV. Our results demonstrate that multi-modal and multi-pollutant assessments are critical for informing more effective and equitable decarbonization and air pollutant remediation strategies.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2239834
- PAR ID:
- 10692091
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research: Health
- Volume:
- 3
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2752-5309
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 045009
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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