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1. The effects of climate change on hailstorms

   Raupach, T. H.; Martius, O.; Allen, J. T.; Kunz, M.; Lasher-Trapp, S.; Mohr, S.; Rasmussen, K. L.; Trapp, R. J.; Zhang, Q. (February 2021, Nature reviews)

   null (Ed.)

   Hailstorms are dangerous and costly phenomena that are expected to change in response to a warming climate. In this Review, we summarize current knowledge of climate change effects on hailstorms. As a result of anthropogenic warming, it is generally anticipated that low-level moisture and convective instability will increase, raising hailstorm likelihood and enabling the formation of larger hailstones; the melting height will rise, enhancing hail melt and increasing the average size of surviving hailstones; and vertical wind shear will decrease overall, with limited influence on the overall hailstorm activity, owing to a predominance of other factors. Given geographic differences and offsetting interactions in these projected environmental changes, there is spatial heterogeneity in hailstorm responses. Observations and modelling lead to the general expectation that hailstorm frequency will increase in Australia and Europe, but decrease in East Asia and North America, while hail severity will increase in most regions. However, these projected changes show marked spatial and temporal variability. Owing to a dearth of long-term observations, as well as incomplete process understanding and limited convection-permitting modelling studies, current and future climate change effects on hailstorms remain highly uncertain. Future studies should focus on detailed processes and account for non-stationarities in proxy relationships. 

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2. Rapid-Scan and Polarimetric Radar Observations of the Dissipation of a Violent Tornado on 9 May 2016 near Sulphur, Oklahoma

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0033.1  

   McKeown, Katherine E.; French, Michael M.; Tuftedal, Kristofer S.; Kingfield, Darrel M.; Bluestein, Howard B.; Reif, Dylan W.; Wienhoff, Zachary B. (September 2020, Monthly Weather Review)

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   Abstract Rapid-scan polarimetric data analysis of the dissipation of a likely violent supercell tornado that struck near Sulphur, Oklahoma, on 9 May 2016 is presented. The Rapid X-band Polarimetric Radar was used to obtain data of the tornado at the end of its mature phase and during its entire dissipation phase. The analysis is presented in two parts: dissipation characteristics of the tornadic vortex signature (TVS) associated with the tornado and storm-scale polarimetric features that may be related to processes contributing to tornado dissipation. The TVS exhibited near-surface radial velocities exceeding 100 m s−1 multiple times at the end of its mature phase, and then underwent a two-phased dissipation. Initially, decreases in near-surface intensity occurred rapidly over a ~5-min period followed by a slower decline in intensity that lasted an additional ~12 min. The dissipation of the TVS in time and height in the lowest 2 km above radar level and oscillatory storm-relative motion of the TVS also are discussed. Using polarimetric data, a well-defined low reflectivity ribbon is investigated for its vertical development, evolution, and relationship to the large tornadic debris signature (TDS) collocated with the TVS. The progression of the TDS during dissipation also is discussed with a focus on the presence of several bands of reduced copolar correlation coefficient that extend away from the main TDS and the eventual erosion of the TDS as the tornado dissipated. Finally, TVS and polarimetric data are combined to argue for the importance of a possible internal rear-flank downdraft momentum surge in contributing to the initial rapid dissipation of the tornado. 

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3. Examining Meteorological Benefits of Rapid-Scan, Fully Digital Phased Array Radar Observations for Detecting Tornado Formation and Intensification

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-24-0104.1  

   Cohen, Brandon K; Bodine, David J; Yeary, Mark B; Snyder, Jeffrey C; Bluestein, Howard B (June 2025, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology)

   Abstract This study focuses on the application of phased array radars (PARs) to observe tornadoes and their formation. PAR technology for meteorological applications is maturing and may become a valuable tool for the meteorological community. A fully digital PAR offers a range of benefits including adaptive scanning techniques, higher temporal resolution especially via radar imaging modes, and denser vertical sampling to allow for more complete observations of severe hazard structure and evolution. To best understand the benefits of such a system, synthetic PAR observations are generated from archived mobile rapid-scan observations collected by the Rapid X-band Polarimetric radar (RaXPol) to emulate typical operational radar ranges and PAR-enabled scanning strategy effects. In this study, a synthetic PAR data tool is applied to two tornadic cases (24 May 2011 El Reno, Oklahoma, tornado and the 24 May 2016 Dodge City, Kansas, tornadoes) and one non-tornadic case (17 April 2013). Results indicate that, despite increasing standoff ranges and using vertical imaging, a PAR can still observe a similar mode of tornadogenesis (i.e., non-descending TVS) as traditional mobile systems but with a slight delay in observing intensification at increasing standoff ranges and reduced change in measured intensity. The PAR-enabled vertical imaging mode does not eliminate our ability to identify the TVS at different spoiling factors, but changes to the structure of the TVS may have operational implications. We hope that the improved understanding of meteorological benefits from these synthetic PAR data can provide useful insight for fully digital PAR radar placement and warning operations. 

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4. The Evolution of Hail Production in Simulated Supercell Storms

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0034.1  

   Kumjian, Matthew R.; Lombardo, Kelly; Loeffler, Scott (August 2021, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   Abstract Hailstorms pose a significant socioeconomic risk, necessitating detailed assessments of how the hail threat changes throughout their lifetimes. Hail production involves the favorable juxtaposition of ingredients, but how storm evolution affects these ingredients is unknown, limiting understanding of how hail production evolves. Unfortunately, neither surface hail reports nor radar-based swath estimates have adequate resolution or details needed to assess evolving hail production. Instead, we use a novel approach of coupling a detailed hail trajectory model to idealized convective storm simulations to better understand storm evolution’s influence on hail production. Hail production varies substantially throughout storms’ mature phases: maximum sizes vary by a factor of two, and the concentration of severe hail more than fivefold during 45-60-min periods. This variability arises from changes in updraft properties, which come from (i) changes in low-level convergence, and (ii) internal storm dynamics, including anticyclonic vortex shedding/storm splitting, and the response of the updraft’s airflow and supercooled liquid water content to these events. Hodograph shape strongly affects such behaviors. Straighter hodographs lead to more prolific hail production through wider updrafts and weaker mesocyclones, and a periodicity in hail size metrics associated with anticyclonic vortex shedding and/or storm splitting. In contrast, a curved hodograph (favorable for tornadoes) led to a storm with a stronger but more compact updraft, which occasionally produced giant (10-cm) hail, but that was a less-prolific severe hail producer overall. Unless storms are adequately sampled throughout their lifecycles, snapshots from ground reports will insufficiently resolve the true nature of hail production. 

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5. Multi-Radar Analysis of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell through Tornadogenesis and Intensification

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030313  

   Satrio, Clarice N.; Bodine, David J.; Palmer, Robert D.; Kuster, Charles M. (February 2021, Atmosphere)

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   A multi-radar analysis of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, U.S. supercell is presented using three Weather Surveillance Radars 1988 Doppler (WSR-88Ds) and PX-1000, a rapid-scan, polarimetric, X-band radar, with a focus on the period between 1930 and 2008 UTC, encompassing supercell maturation through rapid tornado intensification. Owing to the 20-s temporal resolution of PX-1000, a detailed radar analysis of the hook echo is performed on (1) the microphysical characteristics through a hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA)—inter-compared between X- and S-band for performance evaluation—including a hail and debris class and (2) kinematic properties of the low-level mesocyclone (LLM) assessed through ΔVr analyses. Four transient intensifications in ΔVr prior to tornadogenesis are documented and found to be associated with two prevalent internal rear-flank downdraft (RFD) momentum surges, the latter surge coincident with tornadogenesis. The momentum surges are marked by a rapidly advancing reflectivity (ZH) gradient traversing around the LLM, descending reflectivity cores (DRCs), a drop in differential reflectivity (ZDR) due to the advection of smaller drops into the hook echo, a decrease in correlation coefficient (ρhv), and the detection of debris from the HCA. Additionally, volumetric analyses of ZDR and specific differential phase (KDP) signatures show general diffusivity of the ZDR arc even after tornadogenesis in contrast with explosive deepening of the KDP foot downshear of the updraft. Similarly, while the vertical extent of the ZDR and KDP columns decrease leading up to tornadogenesis, the phasing of these signatures are offset after tornadogenesis, with the ZDR column deepening the lagging of KDP. 

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