ABSTRACT We present initial findings from the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study to compare spectral stress-drop estimates for earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence. This study uses a unified dataset to independently estimate earthquake source parameters through various methods. Stress drop, which denotes the change in average shear stress along a fault during earthquake rupture, is a critical parameter in earthquake science, impacting ground motion, rupture simulation, and source physics. Spectral stress drop is commonly derived by fitting the amplitude-spectrum shape, but estimates can vary substantially across studies for individual earthquakes. Sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Statewide (previously, Southern) California Earthquake Center our community study aims to elucidate sources of variability and uncertainty in earthquake spectral stress-drop estimates through quantitative comparison of submitted results from independent analyses. The dataset includes nearly 13,000 earthquakes ranging from M 1 to 7 during a two-week period of the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, recorded within a 1° radius. In this article, we report on 56 unique submissions received from 20 different groups, detailing spectral corner frequencies (or source durations), moment magnitudes, and estimated spectral stress drops. Methods employed encompass spectral ratio analysis, spectral decomposition and inversion, finite-fault modeling, ground-motion-based approaches, and combined methods. Initial analysis reveals significant scatter across submitted spectral stress drops spanning over six orders of magnitude. However, we can identify between-method trends and offsets within the data to mitigate this variability. Averaging submissions for a prioritized subset of 56 events shows reduced variability of spectral stress drop, indicating overall consistency in recovered spectral stress-drop values.
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Comparison of EGF Methods for Ridgecrest Sequence: Can EGFs Help Resolve Ambiguity in Isolating Source Spectra?
ABSTRACT The spectral stress drop is a popular parameter for the simple quantification and characterization of an earthquake source and its expected seismic radiation, enabling investigation of earthquake spatial and temporal variability for larger numbers of events. In addition, spectral measurements are one of the few possible for earthquake characterization and hazard prediction in regions of low seismicity. However, spectral stress-drop estimates are uncertain, especially as recorded earthquakes may be too complex to characterize ideally with a single parameter. Empirical Green’s function (EGF) approaches to isolate the earthquake source are widely regarded as one of the best for individual analysis of well-recorded earthquakes. However, analysis decisions related to the selection of stations, EGFs, time windows, frequency bandwidth, and source models can cause discrepancies in resulting estimates of the source spectrum, source time function, and source parameters. We present results following one well-developed EGF approach, and compare it with those from three other independent methods applied to earthquakes in the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake, sequence selected for the Southern California Earthquake Center /U.S. Geological Survey Community Stress Drop Validation Study. The common data set consists of two weeks of earthquakes from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, including nearly 13,000 events of M 1 and greater, recorded on stations within 100 km. We obtain estimates of corner frequency and spectral stress drop for 75 earthquakes (M 2.2–4.6) and find varying degrees of similarity among studies. We investigate four events in detail (M 2.7–4.1) and find that we obtain consistent results when the sources are relatively simple. Multiple EGFs produce good ratios and source time functions at stations with good azimuthal distribution. This suggests that there is a role for such approaches to resolve the inherent ambiguity in larger scale inversions between source scaling and attenuation and site effects.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1943742
- PAR ID:
- 10693232
- Publisher / Repository:
- GeoScienceWorld
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
- Volume:
- 115
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0037-1106
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1132 to 1148
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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