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Abstract Cities need climate information to develop resilient infrastructure and for adaptation decisions. The information desired is at the order of magnitudes finer scales relative to what is typically available from climate analysis and future projections. Urban downscaling refers to developing such climate information at the city (order of 1 – 10 km) and neighborhood (order of 0.1 – 1 km) resolutions from coarser climate products. Developing these higher resolution (finer grid spacing) data needed for assessments typically covering multiyear climatology of past data and future projections is complex and computationally expensive for traditional physics-based dynamical models. In this study, we develop and adopt a novel approach for urban downscaling by generating a general-purpose operator using deep learning. This ‘DownScaleBench’ tool can aid the process of downscaling to any location. The DownScaleBench has been generalized for both in situ (ground- based) and satellite or reanalysis gridded data. The algorithm employs an iterative super-resolution convolutional neural network (Iterative SRCNN) over the city. We apply this for the development of a high-resolution gridded precipitation product (300 m) from a relatively coarse (10 km) satellite-based product (JAXA GsMAP). The high-resolution gridded precipitation datasets is compared against insitu observations for past heavy rain events over Austin, Texas, and shows marked improvement relative to the coarser datasets relative to cubic interpolation as a baseline. The creation of this Downscaling Bench has implications for generating high-resolution gridded urban meteorological datasets and aiding the planning process for climate-ready cities.
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This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2027
Machine Learning in Climate Downscaling: A Critical Review of Methodologies, Physical Consistency, and Operational Applications
High-resolution climate projections are essential for regional risk assessment; however, Earth System Models (ESMs) operate at scales far too coarse for local impacts. This review examines how machine learning (ML) downscaling can bridge this divide and addresses a key knowledge gap: how to achieve reliable, physically consistent downscaling under future climate change. This article synthesizes ML downscaling developments from 2010 to 2025, spanning early statistical methods to modern deep learning (e.g., convolutional neural networks (CNNs), generative adversarial networks (GANs), diffusion models, and transformers). The analysis introduces a new taxonomy of model families and frames the discussion around the “performance paradox”—the tendency for models with excellent historical skill to falter under non-stationary climate shifts. Our analysis finds that convolutional approaches efficiently capture spatial structure but tend to smooth out extremes, whereas generative models better reproduce high-intensity events at the cost of greater complexity. The study also highlights emerging solutions like physics-informed models and improved uncertainty quantification to tackle persistent issues of physical consistency and trust. Finally, the synthesis outlines a practical roadmap for operational ML downscaling, emphasizing standardized evaluation, out-of-distribution stress tests, and hybrid physics–ML approaches to bolster confidence in future projections.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2331908
- PAR ID:
- 10703595
- Publisher / Repository:
- MDPI
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water
- Volume:
- 18
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2073-4441
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 271
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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