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This content will become publicly available on August 8, 2027

Title: Uncovering Insights of Compound Flooding with Data-Driven AI
Compound flooding, driven by nonlinear interactions between multiple hydrometeorological factors, poses a significant challenge to hazard prevention. Existing forecasting approaches, whether physics-based or data-driven, often emphasize temporal patterns while underexploring how multiple interacting factors jointly shape flood dynamics. To address this problem, we conduct a large-scale data-driven analysis of compound flooding in South Florida, a typical area for compound flooding, by integrating tidal conditions, rainfall, groundwater stage, and human water management activities. Our analysis reveals three key findings: (i) models that capture temporal dynamics alone fail to represent multi-factor interactions during compound events; (ii) subsurface saturation, as reflected by groundwater levels, emerges as a dominant predictor of flood severity, often outweighing immediate rainfall intensity in this porous coastal region; and (iii) the spatial state of surrounding monitoring stations within a finite effective radius provides critical causal context for flooding, while extending temporal history yields diminishing returns during extreme events. These findings suggest that compound flooding is governed more by spatially coupled system states than by long-term temporal dependencies, challenging rain-centric and sequence-dominated forecasting paradigms. By framing data-driven models as tools for scientific inquiry rather than prediction alone, this study offers new insights into the mechanisms of compound flooding and informs the design of more physically grounded early-warning systems for coastal environments.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2331908
PAR ID:
10703602
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
ACM KDD 2026; arXiv preprint: https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.04281v2
Date Published:
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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