%AConlisk, Erin [Energy and Resources Group University of California, Berkeley 310 Barrows Hall Berkeley CA 94720 USA]%AConlisk, Erin [Energy and Resources Group; University of California, Berkeley; 310 Barrows Hall Berkeley CA 94720 USA]%ACastanha, Cristina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division 1 Cyclotron Rd, 74‐316C Berkeley CA 94720 USA, Sierra Nevada Research Institute University of California, Merced 5200 North Lake Road Merced CA 95343 USA]%ACastanha, Cristina [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division; 1 Cyclotron Rd, 74-316C Berkeley CA 94720 USA; Sierra Nevada Research Institute; University of California, Merced; 5200 North Lake Road Merced CA 95343 USA]%AGermino, Matthew [US Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center Boise ID 83706 USA]%AGermino, Matthew [US Geological Survey; Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center; Boise ID 83706 USA]%AVeblen, Thomas [Department of Geography University of Colorado Boulder CO 80301 USA]%AVeblen, Thomas [Department of Geography; University of Colorado; Boulder CO 80301 USA]%ASmith, Jeremy [Department of Geography University of Colorado Boulder CO 80301 USA]%ASmith, Jeremy [Department of Geography; University of Colorado; Boulder CO 80301 USA]%AKueppers, Lara [Energy and Resources Group University of California, Berkeley 310 Barrows Hall Berkeley CA 94720 USA, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division 1 Cyclotron Rd, 74‐316C Berkeley CA 94720 USA, Sierra Nevada Research Institute University of California, Merced 5200 North Lake Road Merced CA 95343 USA]%AKueppers, Lara [Energy and Resources Group; University of California, Berkeley; 310 Barrows Hall Berkeley CA 94720 USA; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division; 1 Cyclotron Rd, 74-316C Berkeley CA 94720 USA; Sierra Nevada Research Institute; University of California, Merced; 5200 North Lake Road Merced CA 95343 USA]%AMatlack, ed., Glenn%AMatlack, ed., Glenn%BJournal Name: Journal of Ecology; Journal Volume: 105; Journal Issue: 5; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2023-09-16 01:08:32 %D2017%IWiley-Blackwell %JJournal Name: Journal of Ecology; Journal Volume: 105; Journal Issue: 5; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2023-09-16 01:08:32 %K %MOSTI ID: 10033590 %PMedium: X %TDeclines in low‐elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high‐elevation populations with warming %XSummary

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate‐sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.

Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long‐term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate‐sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high‐elevation North American conifers.

Empirically observed, warming‐driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low‐elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high‐elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.

Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high‐elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

%0Journal Article