%ABurnett, Adam [Department of Earth System Science Stanford University Stanford CA USA]%ASheshadri, Aditi [Department of Earth System Science Stanford University Stanford CA USA]%ASilvers, Levi [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program Princeton University Princeton NJ USA, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University Stony Brook NY USA, Now at School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University Stony Brook NY USA]%ARobinson, Thomas [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA, SAIC Princeton NJ USA]%BJournal Name: Geophysical Research Letters; Journal Volume: 48; Journal Issue: 5; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2023-08-25 11:38:32 %D2021%IDOI PREFIX: 10.1029 %JJournal Name: Geophysical Research Letters; Journal Volume: 48; Journal Issue: 5; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2023-08-25 11:38:32 %K %MOSTI ID: 10367105 %PMedium: X %TTropical Cyclone Frequency Under Varying SSTs in Aquaplanet Simulations %XAbstract

Global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is investigated in a 50‐km‐resolution aquaplanet model forced by zonally symmetric sea surface temperature (SST). TC frequency per unit area is found to be proportional to the Coriolis parameter at the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), as defined by the latitude of maximum precipitation. As the latitude of maximum SST is shifted northward from the equator, the precipitation maximum moves northward and TC frequency increases. When the SST maximum is shifted northward past 25°N, the precipitation maximum remains between 15°N and 20°N, and TC frequency per unit area is approximately constant. When applied to observed precipitation and SST data, the same scaling captures a substantial fraction of observed TCs. Results suggest that future changes in TC activity will be modulated by changes in the large‐scale circulation, and in particular that the ITCZ location is an important determinant of the number of TCs.

%0Journal Article