%AMacKie, E. [Department of Geophysics Stanford University Stanford CA USA]%ASchroeder, D. [Department of Geophysics Stanford University Stanford CA USA, Department of Electrical Engineering Stanford University Stanford CA USA]%ACaers, J. [Department of Geological Sciences Stanford University Stanford CA USA]%ASiegfried, M. [Department of Geophysics Stanford University Stanford CA USA, Department of Geophysics Colorado School of Mines Golden CO USA]%AScheidt, C. [Department of Energy Resources Engineering Stanford University Stanford CA USA]%BJournal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface; Journal Volume: 125; Journal Issue: 3; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2023-09-06 21:09:23 %D2020%IDOI PREFIX: 10.1029 %JJournal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface; Journal Volume: 125; Journal Issue: 3; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2023-09-06 21:09:23 %K %MOSTI ID: 10375171 %PMedium: X %TAntarctic Topographic Realizations and Geostatistical Modeling Used to Map Subglacial Lakes %X

Antarctic subglacial lakes can play an important role in ice sheet dynamics, biology, geology, and oceanography, but it is difficult to definitively constrain their character and locations. Subglacial lake locations are related to factors including heat flux, ice surface slope, ice thickness, and bed topography, though these relationships are not fully quantified. Bed topography is particularly important for determining where water flows and accumulates, but digital elevation models of the ice sheet bed rely on interpolation and are unrealistically smooth, biasing estimates of subglacial lake location and surface area. To address this issue, we use geostatistical methods to simulate realistically rough bed topography. We use our simulated topography to predict subglacial lake distribution across the continent using a binomial logistic regression, which uses physical parameters and known lake locations to calculate the probabilities of lake occurrences. Our results suggest that topography models interpolated without appropriate geostatistics overestimate subglacial lake surface area and that total lake surface area is lower than previously predicted. We find that radar‐detected lakes are more likely to occur in the interior of East Antarctica, while altimetry‐detected (active) lakes are expected to be found in West Antarctica and near the grounding line. We observe that radar‐detected lakes have a high correlation with heat flux and ice thickness, while active lakes are associated with higher ice velocity.

%0Journal Article