%ATownsend, Jeffrey [Department of Biostatistics Yale School of Public Health New Haven Connecticut USA, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Yale University New Haven Connecticut USA, Program in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics Yale University New Haven Connecticut USA, Program in Microbiology Yale University New Haven Connecticut USA]%AHassler, Hayley [Department of Biostatistics Yale School of Public Health New Haven Connecticut USA]%ADornburg, Alex [Department of Bioinformatics and Genomics University of North Carolina Charlotte North Carolina USA]%BJournal Name: Journal of Medical Virology; Journal Volume: 95; Journal Issue: 2; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2024-02-29 06:30:14 %D2023%IWiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons) %JJournal Name: Journal of Medical Virology; Journal Volume: 95; Journal Issue: 2; Related Information: CHORUS Timestamp: 2024-02-29 06:30:14 %K %MOSTI ID: 10391815 %PMedium: X %TInfection by SARS‐CoV‐2 with alternate frequencies of mRNA vaccine boosting %XAbstract

One of the most consequential unknowns of the COVID‐19 pandemic is the frequency at which vaccine boosting provides sufficient protection from infection. We quantified the statistical likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following different boosting schedules with messenger RNA (mRNA)‐1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer‐BioNTech). We integrated anti‐Spike IgG antibody optical densities with profiles of the waning of antibodies and corresponding probabilities of infection associated with coronavirus endemic transmission. Projecting antibody levels over time given boosting every 6 months, 1, 1.5, 2, or 3 years yielded respective probabilities of fending off infection over a 6‐year span of >93%, 75%, 55%, 40%, and 24% (mRNA‐1273) and >89%, 69%, 49%, 36%, and 23% (BNT162b2). Delaying the administration of updated boosters has bleak repercussions. It increases the probability of individual infection by SARS‐CoV‐2, and correspondingly, ongoing disease spread, prevalence, morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality. Instituting regular, population‐wide booster vaccination updated to predominant variants has the potential to substantially forestall—and with global, widespread uptake, eliminate—COVID‐19.

%0Journal Article