Journal ArticleFingerprinting the recovery of Antarctic ozoneWang, Peidong; Solomon, Susan; Santer, Benjamin D; Kinnison, Douglas E; Fu, Qiang; Stone, Kane A; Zhang, Jun; Manney, Gloria L; Millan, Luis FThe Antarctic ozone “hole” was discovered in 1985, and man-made ozone- depleting substances (ODS) are its primary cause. Following reductions of ODSs under the Montreal Protocol, signs of ozone recovery have been reported, based largely on observations and broad yet compelling model-data comparisons. While such approaches are highly valuable, they don't provide rigorous statistical detection of the temporal and spatial structure of Antarctic ozone recovery in the presence of internal climate variability. Here, we apply pattern-based detection and attribution methods as employed in climate change studies to separate anthropogenically forced ozone responses from internal variability, relying on trend pattern information as a function of month and height. The analysis uses satellite observations together with single-model and multi-model ensemble simulations to identify and quantify the month-height Antarctic ozone recovery “fingerprint”. We demonstrate that the data and simulations show remarkable agreement in the fingerprint pattern of the ozone response to decreasing ODSs since 2005. We also show that ODS forcing has enhanced ozone internal variability during the austral spring, influencing detection of forced responses and their time of emergence. Our results provide robust statistical and physical evidence that actions taken under the Montreal Protocol to reduce ODSs are indeed resulting in the beginning of Antarctic ozone recovery, defined as increases in ozone consistent with expected month-height patterns.Nature Publishing Group2025-03-2010582450Nature6398055646 to 6510028-0836https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08640-92316980; 2202812; 2128617National Science Foundation