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Abstract As we increasingly understand the impact that land management intensification has on local and global climate, the call for nature-based solutions (NbS) in agroecosystems has expanded. Moreover, the pressing need to determine when and where NbS should be used raises challenges to socioecological data integration as we overcome spatiotemporal resolutions. Natural and working lands is an effort promoting NbS, particularly emissions reduction and carbon stock maintenance in forests. To overcome the spatiotemporal limitation, we integrated life cycle assessments (LCA), an ecological carbon stock model, and a land cover land use change model to synthesize rates of global warming potential (GWP) within a fine-scale geographic area (30 m). We scaled National Agricultural Statistic Survey land management data to National Land Cover Data cropland extents to assess GWP of cropland management over time and among management units (i.e. counties and production systems). We found that cropland extent alone was not indicative of GWP emissions; rather, rates of management intensity, such as energy and fertilizer use, are greater indicators of anthropogenic GWP. We found production processes for fuel and fertilizers contributed 51.93% of GWP, where 33.58% GWP was estimated from N₂O emissions after fertilization, and only 13.31% GWP was due to energy consumption by field equipment. This demonstrates that upstream processes in LCA should be considered in NbS with the relative contribution of fertilization to GWP. Additionally, while land cover change had minimal GWP effect, urbanization will replace croplands and forests where NbS are implemented. Fine-scale landscape variations are essential for NbS to identify, as they accumulate within regional and global estimates. As such, this study demonstrates the capability to harness both LCA and fine-resolution imagery for applications in spatiotemporal and socioecological research towards identifying and monitoring NbS. 

Abstract With the increased deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV), the cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV market is expected to grow substantially. CdTe PV production is crucial for the clean energy transition but problematic because of the material availability challenges. CdTe PV relies on tellurium, a scarce metal mainly produced as a byproduct of copper. Several studies investigated the availability of tellurium for CdTe PV. However, previous models are static and do not reflect the interconnection between tellurium supply, demand, and price. Despite the efforts, previous studies have inconsistent results and do not provide a clear understanding on the availability of tellurium for CdTe PV applications. This study uses system dynamics modeling to assess tellurium availability between 2023 and 2050. The model considers different scenarios for CdTe PV demand growth and PV material intensity reduction. The model also considers tellurium supply variables such as Te‐rich ores, tellurium yield from anode slimes, and growth in copper mining. The historical data (2000–2020) analysis shows a negative correlation between the tellurium price and the annual tellurium surplus. All the considered demand scenarios exhibit a tellurium supply gap where annual material production falls below demand. Tellurium availability and price could delay the growth of CdTe PV production, and maintaining the current CdTe PV market share of ~4% will be challenging. The low‐demand scenario, which is based on a constant CdTe PV market share, results in a supply gap starting in 2029 and a supply gap peak of 508 metric tons in 2036. Our work shows that having more manufacturing capacity is insufficient if tellurium is unavailable. More importantly, this work shows that fast growth in CdTe PV production can diminish the advantages of dematerialization. The estimated cumulative CdTe PV production by 2050 ranges between 929 and 2250 GWp. The findings also suggest that recycling retired solar panels can contribute to 17% of the total tellurium demand and 34% of the CdTe PV tellurium demand. Sensitivity analysis shows that expanding existing Te‐rich ores does not alleviate tellurium scarcity. Alternatively, improving tellurium yield from copper electrorefining is a more efficient mitigation approach. The system dynamic approach outlined in this study provides a better perspective on the status of various critical metal supply chains, ultimately leading to sustainable materials management and increasing CdTe production.