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The extent to which future climate change will increase forest stress and the amount to which species and forest ecosystems can acclimate or adapt to increased stress is a major unknown. We used high‐resolution maps of hydraulic traits representing the diversity in tree drought tolerance across the United States, a hydraulically enabled tree model, and forest inventory observations of demographic shifts to quantify the ability for within‐species acclimation and between‐species range shifts to mediate climate stress. We found that forests are likely to experience increases in both acute and chronic hydraulic stress with climate change. Based on current species distributions, regional hydraulic trait diversity was sufficient to buffer against increased stress in 88% of forested areas. However, observed trait velocities in 81% of forested areas are not keeping up with the rate required to ameliorate projected future stress without leaf area acclimation.

The reliance of 10 Utah (USA) aspen forests on direct infiltration of growing season rain versus an additional subsurface water subsidy was determined from a trait‐ and process‐based model of stomatal control. The model simulated the relationship between water supply to the root zone versus canopy transpiration and assimilation over a growing season. Canopy flux thresholds were identified that distinguished nonstressed, stressed, and dying stands. We found growing season rain and local soil moisture were insufficient for the survival of 5 of 10 stands. Six stands required a substantial subsidy (31–80% of potential seasonal transpiration) to avoid water stress and maximize photosynthetic potential. Subsidy dependence increased with stand hydraulic conductance. Four of the six “subsidized” stands were predicted to be stressed during the survey year owing to a subsidy shortfall. Since winter snowpack is closely related to groundwater recharge in the region, we compared winter precipitation with tree‐ring chronologies. Consistent with model predictions, chronologies were more sensitive to snowpack in subsidized stands than in nonsubsidized ones. The results imply that aspen stand health in the region is more coupled to winter snowpack than to growing season water supply. Winters are predicted to have less precipitation as snow, indicating a stressful future for the region's aspen forests.