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The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, leading to earlier spring conditions and plant phenology. It is often unclear to what degree changes in reproductive fitness (flower, fruit and seed production) are a direct response to warming versus an indirect response through shifting phenology. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative importance of these direct and indirect pathways and project the net effects of warming on plant phenology and reproductive fitness under current and future climate scenarios.

We used two long-term datasets on 12 tundra species in the Canadian Arctic as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Phenology and reproductive fitness were recorded annually on tagged individual plants at both Daring Lake, Northwest Territories (64° 52' N, - 111° 35' W) and Alexandra Fiord, Nunavut (78° 49' N, - 75° 48' W). The plant species encompassed a wide taxonomic diversity across a range of plant functional types with circumpolar/boreal distributions. We used hierarchical Bayesian structural equation models to compare the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on phenology and reproductive fitness across species, sites and years.

We found that warming, both experimental and ambient, drove earlier flowering across species, which led to higher numbers of flowers and fruits produced, reflecting directional phenotypic selection for earlier flowering phenology. Furthermore, this indirect effect of climate warming mediated through phenology was generally about two to three times stronger than the direct effect of climate on reproductive fitness. Under future climate predictions, individual plants showed a ~2- to 4.5-fold increase in their reproductive fitness (flower counts) with advanced flowering phenology.

Our results suggest that, on average, the benefits of early flowering, such as increased development time and subsequent enhanced reproductive fitness, might outweigh its risks. Overall, this work provides important insights into population-level consequences of phenological shifts in a warming Arctic over multi-decadal time scales.

Across taxa, vegetative and floral traits that vary along a fast‐slow life‐history axis are often correlated with leaf functional traits arrayed along the leaf economics spectrum, suggesting a constrained set of adaptive trait combinations. Such broad‐scale convergence may arise from genetic constraints imposed by pleiotropy (or tight linkage) within species, or from natural selection alone. Understanding the genetic basis of trait syndromes and their components is key to distinguishing these alternatives and predicting evolution in novel environments.

We used a line‐cross approach and quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping to characterize the genetic basis of twenty leaf functional/physiological, life history, and floral traits in hybrids between annualized and perennial populations of scarlet monkeyflower (Mimulus cardinalis).

We mapped both single and multi‐trait QTLs for life history, leaf function and reproductive traits, but found no evidence of genetic co‐ordination across categories. A major QTL for three leaf functional traits (thickness, photosynthetic rate, and stomatal resistance) suggests that a simple shift in leaf anatomy may be key to adaptation to seasonally dry habitats.

Our results suggest that the co‐ordination of resource‐acquisitive leaf physiological traits with a fast life‐history and more selfing mating system results from environmental selection rather than functional or genetic constraint. Independent assortment of distinct trait modules, as well as a simple genetic basis to leaf physiological traits associated with drought escape, may facilitate adaptation to changing climates.