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In the study of factors shaping species' poleward range boundaries, climatic constraints are often assigned greater importance than biotic interactions such as competition. However, theory suggests competition can truncate a species' fundamental niche in harsh environments. We test this by challenging a mechanistic niche model – containing explicit competition terms – to predict the poleward range boundaries of two globally distributed, ecologically similar aquatic plant species. Mechanistic competition models accurately predicted the northern range limits of our study species, outperforming competition‐free mechanistic models and matching the predictive ability of statistical niche models fit to occurrence records. Using the framework of modern coexistence theory, we found that relative nonlinearity in competitors' responses to temperature fluctuations maintains their coexistence boundary, highlighting the importance of this fluctuation‐dependent mechanism. Our results support a more nuanced, interactive role of climate and competition in determining range boundaries, and illustrate a practical, process‐based approach to understanding the determinants of range limits.

Understanding the ecological factors that shape geographic range limits and the evolutionary constraints that prevent populations from adaptively evolving beyond these limits is an unresolved question. Here, we investigated why the euryhaline fish,Poecila reticulata, is confined to freshwater within its native range, despite being tolerant of brackish water. We hypothesised that competitive interactions with a close relative,Poecilia picta, in brackish water preventsP.reticulatafrom colonising brackish water. Using a combination of field transplant, common garden breeding, and laboratory behaviour experiments, we find support for this hypothesis, asP.reticulataare behaviourally subordinate and have lower survival in brackish water withP.picta. We also found a negative genetic correlation betweenP.reticulatagrowth in brackish water versus freshwater in the presence ofP.picta, suggesting a genetically based trade‐off between salinity tolerance and competitive ability could constrain adaptive evolution at the range limit.

Contemporary climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented rate. The question remains whether populations adapted to historical conditions can persist under rapid environmental change. We tested whether climate change will disrupt local adaptation and reduce population growth rates using the perennial plantBoechera stricta(Brassicaceae). In a large‐scale field experiment conducted over five years, we exposed > 106 000 transplants to historical, current, or future climates and quantified fitness components. Low‐elevation populations outperformed local populations under simulated climate change (snow removal) across all five experimental gardens. Local maladaptation also emerged in control treatments, but it was less pronounced than under snow removal. We recovered local adaptation under snow addition treatments, which reflect historical conditions. Our results revealed that low elevation populations risk rapid decline, whereas upslope migration could enable population persistence and expansion at higher elevation locales. Local adaptation to historical conditions could increase vulnerability to climate change, even for geographically widespread species.

Although individual‐level variation (IV) is ubiquitous in nature, it is not clear how it influences species coexistence. Theory predicts that IV will hinder coexistence but empirical studies have shown that it can facilitate, inhibit, or have a neutral effect. We use a theoretical model to explore the consequences of IV on local and regional species coexistence in the context of spatial environmental structure. Our results show that individual variation can have a positive effect on species coexistence and that this effect will critically depend on the spatial structure of such variation. IV facilitates coexistence when a negative, concave‐up relationship between individuals’ competitive response and population growth rates propagates to a disproportionate advantage for the inferior competitor, provided that each species specialises in a habitat. While greater variation in the preferred habitat generally fosters coexistence, the opposite is true for non‐preferred habitats. Our results reconcile theory with empirical findings.