Density-dependent selection, which promotes contrasting patterns of trait means at different population densities, has a long history in population genetics and ecology. The unifying principle from theory is that density-dependent selection operates on phenotypic traits whose values counter the effects of whatever ecological agent is limiting population growth, be it resource competition, predators, or pathogens. However, the complexity inherent in density dependence means that the same selective process can generate multiple outcomes, depending upon the details of how population density affects vital rates and the age or size structure of a population. Failure to appreciate the potential for multiple outcomes confounded many early studies of the process. Nonetheless, careful empirical work in laboratory studies, long-term field studies, and studies of sexual selection demonstrates the wide reach of density-dependent selection. The inconsistent outcomes observed in these studies call for renewed research into how the details of density dependence channel adaptive responses.
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In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting—but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity.more » « less
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Abstract Dispersal is a central life history trait that affects the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations and communities. The recent use of experimental evolution for the study of dispersal is a promising avenue for demonstrating valuable proofs of concept, bringing insight into alternative dispersal strategies and trade‐offs, and testing the repeatability of evolutionary outcomes.
Practical constraints restrict experimental evolution studies of dispersal to a set of typically small, short‐lived organisms reared in artificial laboratory conditions. Here, we argue that despite these restrictions, inferences from these studies can reinforce links between theoretical predictions and empirical observations and advance our understanding of the eco‐evolutionary consequences of dispersal.
We illustrate how applying an integrative framework of theory, experimental evolution and natural systems can improve our understanding of dispersal evolution under more complex and realistic biological scenarios, such as the role of biotic interactions and complex dispersal syndromes.
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The global movement of pathogens is altering populations and communities through a variety of direct and indirect ecological pathways. The direct effect of a pathogen on a host is reduced survival, which can lead to decreased population densities. However, theory also suggests that increased mortality can lead to no change or even increases in the density of the host. This paradoxical result can occur in a regulated population when the pathogen’s negative effect on survival is countered by increased reproduction at the lower density. Here, we analyze data from a long-term capture–mark–recapture experiment of Trinidadian guppies (
Poecilia reticulata ) that were recently infected with a nematode parasite (Camallanus cotti ). By comparing the newly infected population with a control population that was not infected, we show that decreases in the density of the infected guppy population were transient. The guppy population compensated for the decreased survival by a density-dependent increase in recruitment of new individuals into the population, without any change in the underlying recruitment function. Increased recruitment was related to an increase in the somatic growth of uninfected fish. Twenty months into the new invasion, the population had fully recovered to preinvasion densities even though the prevalence of infection of fish in the population remained high (72%). These results show that density-mediated indirect effects of novel parasites can be positive, not negative, which makes it difficult to extrapolate to how pathogens will affect species interactions in communities. We discuss possible hypotheses for the rapid recovery.