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Climate change is broadly affecting phenology, but species‐specific phenological response to temperature is not well understood. In streams, insect emergence has important ecosystem‐level consequences because emergent adults link aquatic and terrestrial food webs. We quantified emergence timing and duration (within‐population synchronicity) of insects among streams along a spatiotemporal gradient of mean water temperature in a montane basin to assess the sensitivity of these phenological traits to heat accumulation from mid‐winter through spring emergence periods.

Six headwater streams in the Lookout Creek basin, H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA.

We collected emerging adults of four abundant insect species twice weekly throughout spring for 6 consecutive years. We fit Gaussian models to the empirical temporal distributions to characterize peak emergence timing (mean) and duration (days between 5th and 95th percentiles) for each species/stream/year combination. We then quantified relationships between degree‐day accumulation and phenological response.

Only one of the four species (a caddisfly) showed a simple response of earlier emergence timing in both warmer streams and years. One stonefly had lengthy emergence periods resulting in substantial phenological overlap between warmer and cooler streams/years. Interestingly, two species (a mayfly and a stonefly) responded strongly to temporal (interannual) temperature differences but minimally to spatial differences, indicating that emergence was nearly synchronous among streams, within years. These two species had among‐stream differences approaching 500 degree‐days from mid‐winter to peak emergence. Conversely, duration of emergence was more strongly associated with spatial than temporal differences, with longer duration in lower‐elevation (warmer) streams.

Emergence phenology has species‐specific responses to temperature likely driven by complex cues for diapause or quiescence periods during preceding life cycle stages. We hypothesize a trade‐off between complex phenological response that synchronizes emergence among heterogeneous sites and other traits such as adult longevity and dispersal capacity.

On 11 March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that resulted in the largest known rafting event in recorded history. By spring 2012, marine debris began washing ashore along the Pacific coast of the United States and Canada with a wide range of Asian coastal species attached. We used this unique dataset, where the source region, date of dislodgment and landing location are known, to assess the potential for species invasions by transoceanic rafting on marine debris.

Northeast Pacific from 20 to 60°N.

Current.

Forty‐eight invertebrate and algal species recorded on Japanese tsunami marine debris (JTMD).

We developed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution models for 48 species recorded on JTMD to predict establishment potential along the Pacific coast from 20 to 60°N. Models were compared within the context of historical marine introductions from Japan to this region to validate the emergence of marine debris as a novel vector for species transfer.

Overall, 27% (13 species) landed with debris at locations with suitable environmental conditions for establishment and survival, indicating that these species may be able to establish new populations or introduce greater genetic diversity to already established non‐native populations. A further 21 species have an environmental match to areas where tsunami debris likely landed, but was not extensively sampled. Nearly 100 Japanese marine species previously invaded the northeastern Pacific, demonstrating this region’s environmental suitability for rafting Japanese biota. Historical invasions from Japan are highest in California and largely known from bays and harbours.

Marine debris is a novel and growing vector for non‐native species introduction. By utilizing a unique dataset of JTMD species, our predictive models show capacity for new transoceanic invasions and can focus monitoring priorities to detect successful long‐distance dispersal across the world’s oceans.