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Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify more rapidly with warming, but relatively little work has examined whether they could expand more rapidly with warming, too. Recent theory predicts that peak expansion rate should increase with sea surface temperature (SST), and physical arguments suggest this dependence should be specifically on the relative SST, i.e. the SST difference from the tropical mean. We test this hypothesis with historical observational data, in which SST variations are primarily variations in relative SST. Both average and peak expansion rates are found to systematically increase with relative SST globally across the Northern Hemisphere (27.2 and 37.5 km/d/K) and within each individual basin. Results are robust across both reanalysis and Best Track observational datasets. Uniform-SST aquaplanet simulations show a much weaker dependence of maximum expansion rate on absolute SST, suggesting that the dominant dependence is on relative SST. Hence, mean global warming is not expected to strongly change storm size dynamics, but patterns of sea surface warming may play an important role in determining how storm size, and hence coastal risk, may change in the future. This work can also help improve forecasting of the wind field and its hazards and impacts at landfall. 

Emplacement of the Siberian Traps large igneous province (LIP) around 252 Ma coincided with the most profound environmental disruption of the past 500 million years. The enormous volume of the Siberian Traps, its ability to generate greenhouse gases and other volatiles, and a temporal coincidence with extinction all suggest a causal link. Patterns of marine and terrestrial extinction/recovery are consistent with environmental stresses potentially triggered by the Siberian Traps. However, the nature of causal links between the LIP and mass extinction remains enigmatic. Understanding the origins, anatomy, and forcing potential of the Siberian Traps LIP and the spatiotemporal patterns of resulting stresses represents a critical counterpart to high-resolution fossil and proxy records of Permian–Triassic environmental and biotic shifts. This review provides a summary of recent advances and key questions regarding the Siberian Traps in an effort to illuminate what combination of factors made the Siberian Traps a uniquely deadly LIP. 

Oysters,Crassostrea virginica, are economically and ecologically valuable but have severely declined, and restoration is needed. As with the restoration and aquaculture of many shellfish species, restored oyster reefs are often impeded by predation losses, reducing restoration success and restricting locations where restored reefs are viable. Like many organisms, shellfish can modify their morphology to reduce predation risk by detecting and responding to chemical signals emanating from predators and injured prey. Oysters grow heavier, stronger shells in response to predation risk cues, which improves their survival. We tested if using predator cues to trigger shell hardening in oysters could be performed over a scale suitable for oyster reef restoration and improve oyster survival long‐term. We constructed an intertidal oyster reef using oysters grown in a nursery for 4 weeks while exposed to either exudates from Blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) predators or grown in controls without predator cues. Oysters grown with predators were 65% harder than those grown in controls, and after 1 year in the field, had a 60% increase in survival. Predation losses on the restored reef were significant, and the benefit of predator induction for survival was highest at intermediate tidal elevations, presumably due to intermediate levels of predation and abiotic stress. Our results suggest that manipulating the morphology of cultivated or restored species can be an effective tool to improve survival in habitats where consumers impede restoration success. 

Abstract Deep-reaching warming along the boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the subtropical gyre is a consistent feature of multidecadal observational estimates and projections of future climate. In the Indian basin, the maximum ocean heat content change is collocated with the powerful Agulhas Return Current (ARC) in the west and Subantarctic Front (SAF) in the east, forming a southeastward band we denote as the ARC–SAF. We find that this jet-confined warming is linked to a poleward shift of these strong currents via the thermal wind relation. Using a suite of idealized ocean-only and partially coupled climate model experiments, we show that strong global buoyancy flux anomalies consistently drive a poleward shift of the ARC–SAF circulation and the associated heat content change maximum. To better understand how buoyancy addition modifies this circulation in the absence of wind stress change, we next apply buoyancy perturbations only to certain regions. Buoyancy addition across the Indian and Pacific Oceans (including the ARC–SAF) gives rise to a strong baroclinic circulation response and modest poleward shift. In contrast, buoyancy addition in the North Atlantic drives a vertically coherent poleward shift of the ARC–SAF, which we suggest is associated with an ocean heat content perturbation communicated to the Southern Ocean via planetary waves and advected eastward along the ARC–SAF. Whereas poleward-shifting circulation and banded warming under climate change have been previously attributed to poleward-shifting winds in the Southern Ocean, we show that buoyancy addition can drive this circulation change in the Indian sector independent of changing wind stress. Significance StatementThis research aims to identify which changes at the atmosphere–ocean interface cause ocean warming localized within strong Southern Ocean currents under climate change. Whereas previous regional studies have emphasized the role of changes in Southern Hemisphere winds, we show that these currents are also sensitive to additional heat and freshwater input into the ocean—even in the faraway North Atlantic. Adding heat and freshwater shifts the currents southward, which is dynamically tied to the “band” of ocean warming seen in both long-term observations and climate change projections. We demonstrate that the warming climate will modify ocean circulation in unexpected ways; the consequences for the ocean’s ability to continue removing anthropogenic heat and carbon from the atmosphere remain poorly understood. 

Abstract Climate change is causing rapid, unexpected changes to ecosystems through alteration to environmental regimes, modification of species interactions, and increased frequency and magnitude of disturbances. Yet, how the type of disturbance affects food webs remains ambiguous. Long‐term studies capturing ecosystem responses to extreme events are necessary to understand climate effects on species interactions and ecosystem resilience but remain rare. In the Gulf of Mexico, our 8‐year study captured two disturbances that had contrasting effects on predator abundance and cascading effects on estuarine food webs. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey destroyed fishing infrastructure, fishing activity declined, and sportfish populations increased ~40% while intermediate trophic levels that sportfish prey upon declined ~50%. Then, in 2021, a fish kill caused by freezing temperatures during Winter Storm Uri reduced sportfish populations by ~60% and intermediate trophic levels increased by over 250%. Sportfish abundance affected the abundance and size of oyster reef mesopredators. Excluding fish predators significantly altered oyster reef community structure. These results demonstrate how extreme events shape communities and influence their resilience based on their effects on top predators. Moreover, top‐down forces from sportfish are important in estuaries, persist through disturbances, and influence community resilience, highlighting the necessity of proper recreational fisheries management through extreme events.